To: Rich1 who wrote (9780 ) 1/3/2001 10:54:24 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (1) | Respond to I hope your guy is wrong, if this is a bottom and we go into a real bull market from here, I dread what will happen once the bubble is reinflated. I think that the fed's by showing such great urgency is either seeing a much greater weakness in the economy than was anticipated, that means that a lot of bad news are going to come our way. I think that many stocks are still priced for beating earning estimates, and if these do not come, you know the story. Furthermore, the market positive psychology was broken in the last 9 months, and I do not think that stocks will be bid up with abandon. Last, I wonder how much short ammunition was wasted today, I am not complaining, but some stocks really took off from the lows (BRCD went from under $73 to $111 or so, this is close to 52%, BRCM from under $66 to $90 plus this is 36% and many others), this is not sustainable, IMHO. Your cycle guy and I do not differ much on the top here (I have the 10th), nor on the short term retrenchment (I have it mild at around 250 to 300 Naz points from the high), but after the next FOMC, we will all know why the fed's had to act so urgently, and we will have a plethora of earning releases to prove it, and "forward looking statements", I believe that this influence will be sufficient to create price pressures to form at least a double bottom not far from todays' intraday's low (2250). Maybe even a little worse. From a technical point of view, one of the concerns I have is that the last 300 naz points decline were not accompanied by excessive negativism, nor was there concordance between the Naz and the Dow, there was no real run from equity like at the bottom of bear markets (where the baby is thrown with the wash water).
