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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (37519)	1/4/2001 2:01:38 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Lindy, That is why I said "prepare", Mike. When we were at the San Diego meeting, it should have been obvious that we should have got out. First and foremost, when I offered at Q's annual meeting the idea that most all stocks including our gorillas were overvalued, that comment had nothing to do with the interest rate environment. It had only to do with valuation using virtually every metric I knew how to use, traditional and otherwise. Moreover, when I made the comment, it wasn't with the notion that we should sell our stocks. I'd make the exact same presentation today that I made then giving the same set of circumstances. Now, back to changing interest rates. Everything we discuss about the futility of timing is that obviousness is always easy to see when using hindsight. When would you have "prepared" to get out? July? September? December? Look at the interest rate charts and the chart of the Naz before you answer that one. :) There are lots of ways to make money. My way and the Gorilla Gaming way isn't the only way. But by ignoring interest rate fluctuations and using Gorilla Gaming strategies, my portfolio increased at an average annual rate of more than 80% during the last two years. I'm aware of people who have done far better than I. None of 'em did it by trying to play the interest rate game. Getting out is certainly one way to try making money, but to say that we should have got out doesn't stand up to scrutiny in my opinion. If it was a mistake to remain fully invested during the last two years, I sure as heck hope I make that bad a mistake a lot more often. --Mike Buckley