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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: upanddown who wrote (83409)1/4/2001 7:08:41 AM
From: Second_Titan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
NG storage. I think the point is that zero storage is zero storage. But operation below zero may be possible in extreme cases. I imagine if total chaos is experienced and system pressures are very low more gas can be released into a depleted system.

I have to review Simmon's NG storage report, again, but I think the real issue is below 500 bcf deliverability may become a big problem. These storage areas are huge accumulators that maintain system stability during high flows. So when have we operated at peak demand with ~500 bcf in storage?

I go along with predictions of 300 bcf by the end of storage. With mass panic along during the last month of draws.

I find it comforting that comments such as these are being reported by SSB weeks after being posted on this board.

"However, the view from several companies in the 'trenches' is that drilling efficiency has dropped off much more sharply than we have assumed," Morris and Schmitz said in their report. "In fact, several companies have indicated to us that they believe production additions for the most recent 100-250 domestic natural gas rigs is about one-half of that for the first 500-600 rigs put to work industry-wide."



To: upanddown who wrote (83409)1/4/2001 7:54:40 AM
From: Think4Yourself  Respond to of 95453
 
I noticed that yesterday as well. They must be using some leftover "fuzzy logic" from the election because the math doesn't even come close to adding up.

These are the same folks who said last summer that there would be plenty of NG to get through the winter. Maybe they are looking for the "missing TCF"?

"That TCF just HAS to be out there in storage somewhere. We just don't know where" ;o)



To: upanddown who wrote (83409)1/4/2001 1:50:54 PM
From: kollmhn  Respond to of 95453
 
John-
I think SSB's number are amiss also.
We have storage at 1729 BCF, right now. Adding up the 5 year average draws for each week of the remainder of the season (ending 3/30/00) gives us an additional draw of 1410Bcf. That would leave storage at 319Bcf, not 675BCF.
That 319 Bcf level is if draws are average, not if it's 4.5 degrees colder than normal.
So, like you, I question their conclusion as written. It's not the first time I've seen sloppy reports out of the IBs.