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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (87898)	1/4/2001 10:13:23 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi mishedlo; Re: "DDR is running into the same types of "noise" problems that RDRAM did" I presume you are referring to the delay in the AMD PC2100 motherboards. If so, the noise problem is in the FSB, not the memory bus. -- Carl

To: mishedlo who wrote (87898)	1/4/2001 12:46:56 PM
From: starhawke	Respond to of 132070

"...,DDR is now 1 full year behind RDRAM in deployment..." - Wasn't DRDRAM expected to get cheaper as the technology aged and production ramped? DDR memory modules for main memory are just leaving the starting gates, and Crucial.com (Micron) sports the following "web" prices for DDR memory: 64MB DDR PC1600 $48.59 64MB DDR PC1600 $57.59 128MB DDR PC1600 $77.39 64MB DDR PC1600 $80.99 256MB DDR PC1600 $170.99 A considerable savings from DRDRAM. And yes, system boards will soon be on the way. crucial.com S PS. "In the meantime INTC is by design married to RDRAM." - Not even for all of 2001. And it would be better phrased as 'In the meantime INTC is by contract married to RDRAM.' And I've got news for you. Intel wants a divorce!

To: mishedlo who wrote (87898)	1/4/2001 6:14:21 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 132070

Mike: OK, you are on, although I have to warn you that the last guy who placed such a bet (on GSTRF when it was at $9.00 a few months ago) has lost his shirt. (g) I too spend a bit of time on this little dickens and my gang are short at the moment, although not in size (they did very well on it over the last few months). Rather than reiterate points made in past postings, I will only note the following: - RMBS's last quarterly report provides initial evidence that the royalty rates negotiated with firms that have settled are not significant. - Intel has already divorced RMBS and has done this in public (see specs for upcoming chipsets, memos to the field, public pronouncements, etc.). Even if Intel hadn't distanced itself from RMBS, given Intel's weakened market position, there is no way that INTC could force the technology down gagging throats. - The PC market is cratered, so even if RMBS technology was superior, (which it isn't) it wouldn't matter. The pricing pressure is intense in the memory game and price is everything. In the end, a company has to make money. - Yes, RMBS got to market before DDR and the DDR proponents have had to eat some nasty delays, but DDR has strong industry support. Given the fact that the current PC market is terribly weak, the arrival of DDR just adds to the problem. Three competing memory technologies does nothing except ensure that already ruinous price wars intensify even further and that all participants lose even more money (i.e., even the "winners" bleed to death). - The shear quantity of product announcements of the last few months that evidence DDR useage, sure doesn't suggest that DDR is being put on the back burner. - Following last year's extremely weak RMBS demand, most PC producers quietly shelved or dumped RMBS products. I see no evidence in the field to suggest that this situation will turn around. Try to find anybody out there who wants to have anything to do with it. Routers and servers,.... sure, but the big numbers are in the PC market - I don't think RMBS will ever let any of its suits get to court, as there are just too many worrisome issues that could become public, any one of which could be used by a court to sink the company's case. Even the guys who have "air tight cases" hate to go to court (one can lose on some arcane point of law, or on a judge's personal point of view), which explains why RMBS has "settled", (yet insisted that the terms of settlement remain private). - This is a bear market. In a bull market, a "story stock" can be held up for quite some time, but in the current environment, the RMBS story is old, full of holes, and not very exciting anymore. Without real earnings showing up very soon, it will continue to erode. I would be surprised if AMD ended up supporting Rdram, although it isn't out of the question. So far, I haven't seen any evidence to suggest this. While I don't put much value in charts, many market participants do. The RMBS charts are not very encouraging. I won't go hog wild on the short side of this stock as it is missing a key ingredient,..... massive debt. That said, it's PE and weak fundamentals ensures its place as a "core holding" in many short portfolios. Personally, I am leery of stocks with massive short positions, as short squeezes can be painful. That said, large short positions inevitably pinpoint companies that will fail. Ah, timing. (g) Best, Earlie