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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hamsandwich who wrote (63655)	1/4/2001 1:02:00 PM
From: Barry Grossman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

sandwich, . The word on the street is that longs need to exit (read: be short RMBS) prior to some of the evidence being presented in a couple of those cases Where exactly does this word on the street come from? What evidence have you heard about that causes you to believe this word on the street? Did you not hear the refutations of all the Micron, Hyundai and Infineon claims by Geoff Tate on the recent Rambus conference call? Do you actually believe he would make these refutations in such a public way without considering the liability that such statements might cause if he were not telling the truth? The word on the street that I listen to says that those who are attempting to charge Rambus with antitrust violations, stealing IP from JDEC or using prior art are playing with fire and barking up the wrong tree to use a few well-worn cliches. Barry

To: hamsandwich who wrote (63655)	1/8/2001 2:03:04 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

hamsandwich... >>What sort of time frame do you have for wave 5? I remember reading a 5 month window or so in one of your past messages. Does that window still exist after the tacking on the additional 2wk ED to wave 4?<< Wave rules tells us the following about this coming 5th Wave Rally in RMBS: 1.) Probabilities are in favor of the move exceeding wave 3's top (145), and it must retrace at least 70% of wave 4, leading to a minimum move back to 111.48. 2.) Since wave 3 WAS extended, wave 5 will not be, meaning it will be shorter than wave 3's 14 month duration (4/23/99-6/21/00). Wave 1 only required 3.3 months to complete (5/14/97-8/25/97), so we should look for something between 3.3 and 14 months for the completion of 5. Wave guidelines state that "when wave 3 is about equal to 161.% of wave 1 by price, the most likely time for Wave 5 is about equal to the time taken by Wave 1." Wave 1 topped at split-adjusted 21.5 on 8/25/97, and wave 3 at 145 on 6/22/00, or 674% distance of 1. With a ratio of 4X that stated in the guideline, my best guess is we should multiply the duration of wave 1 by 4 and that should give us the best possible guess at this point. Unfortunately, after reviewing wave formations in all indices and reexamining that of RMBS, I'm afraid I no longer believe 4 has ended yet and 5 begun. Wave formations are currently VERY NEGATIVE on all key indices, and RMBS looks like it is in a final countertrend rally before retesting that 33.25 - 36 area yet again. The completion of the last of wave 4 lower in Rmbs should coincide with a "collapse" in the key indices, with the Naz comp piercing 1600 in the next few weeks (1585 my target). That scenario would only be negated by 2 consecutive closes back above 2471, the level I specified in a 12/6/00 post as "all important" Message 14954796 , and whose validity was borne out by the 2000 year-end close right on that number. I personally would not get into trying to trade out of RMBS during this expected declined, but will add more when I see a sharp decline under 36. 33.25 should not be breeched to maintain form, and a break under there would target the 8/25/97 high for next major wave support.