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To: jim kelley who wrote (63660)	1/4/2001 5:01:25 PM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

JK, re: There are 120 M desktop platforms estimated for next year. I assume you do mean 2002. Intel has 80% of the market. Half of them will be RDRAM/P4 by the end of 2001. When did Intel say they were dropping Celeron? Seem's to me they sell a lot of Celerons. They just intro'd one at 800MHz with 100MHz FSB. That will be very popular. (BTW, I doubt P4 will equal PIII at the end of the year). And how many Northwood's will be sold in 2002? (Single channel P4 w/o RDRAM). And who know's what they will end up doing with DDR. Two channels per P4 with 8 devices per channel. What happened to scalability? Heck, in 2002 four 256Mb per channel will get you 256MB. Four 128Mb/channel gets you 128MB today. There are an estimated 160 M PC to be produced in 2001 not the 100M you seem to be using. I merely gave an example with a simple number to understand. That said, 2000 will end up with ~120M total PC ships. With projected ~15% growth 2001 looks like ~ 140 M units. Subtract out lap-tops, the fastest growing segment, and my example is coincidentally close to reality. However, the average number of chips per Desk Top will be less than 16. JMHO's