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To: IndexTrader who wrote (63669)	1/8/2001 3:34:01 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Susan... >>Also, what is your take on the S&P.<< Fresh off the presses with a new big picture read on the SPX. There were always wave rule compliance problems with trying to begin a new major wave count from the 10/98 low, but it was clear that a major supercycle was completed at the 8/7/97 high, which i believe was the end of supercycle wave 3 that began from the 4/80 lows. The difficulty has been in determining precisely where the Supercycle Wave 5 began, as the action since the 10/97 collapse can not be a continuation of that correction. Wave 2 in the count spanned from 66-80 as a complex and lengthy corrective, so Wave 4 should have been relatively quick. Ending in the same year it began seemed too quick, but i'm afraid that's what happened. It was hard to accept because our markets were spared relative to most worldwide markets, who considered the U.S. a flight to safety. Where other markets were decimated 70 to 90%, our markets had a relatively shallow 12 to 20% correction, then positive fundamentals quickly carried the market forward in a strong rally marking the beginning of Super 5. Now with Super Wave 1 taking roughly 177 years (1789-1966), and 3 lasting 17.33 years (4/80-8/97), 5 if maintaining the same ratio time wise to 3 as 3 did to 1 (which often happens if 3 is shorter than 1) would target 1.7 years or 21 months from the 10/28/97 beginning of 5, or July of 99 to be looking for the end to this centuries old U.S. bull market and Grand Supercycle. From the 10/28/97 beginning you can see a clear wave 1 up into the 7/20/98 high, wave 2 down into the 10/8/98 low, wave 3 up into the 7/20/99 high, wave 4 into the 10/18/99 low, and wave 5... Get this... Completed on the 1st day of the new millenium... 1/3/00, and with it completed the market Grand Supercycle. Since 1/3/00, we have entered a correction of the largest degree possible and never seen before in U.S. markets. This correction is taking the familiar ABC format, with the first "A" now nearing completion. "A" itself is made up of a 3 wave ABC, and from the 1/3/00 beginning, wave a of A completed at the 2/28 lows. b of A was very complex, with a of b completing at the 3/24 high, b of b at the 4/14 low, and c of b at the 9/1 high (an ending diagonal). Since that 9/1 high, we've been in c of A. Since this entire A wave from the 1/3/00 beginning is an expanded flat, wave c of A can be no larger than 2X the greater of a or b of A. b was the larger of the 2 (227 pts.), so this wave c of A can be no larger than 454 points from its 9/1/00 1530 start... So the max for the move lower from here should be 1076. It's probably no coincidence that same number is targeted by the Head & Shoulders pattern which formed between 10/18/00 & 11/21/00. Conclusion: We're on our way to 1076 SPX, which should correlate with 1585 on the Naz Comp., 525 NYSE & 8600 Dow. Feb NYSE & Dow put options may pay the biggest percent return due to their relatively small premiums.