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To: fedhead who wrote (114277)	1/4/2001 8:38:33 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

First of all I must admit, there are people far more experienced and better at TA than I. I just use a very crude form of TA analysis. I look at trendlines, points of prior support and resistance. I really don't get into all that flags and pennants and stochastics this RSI MACD that. I think money flow is an interesting TA tool to use, but I don't use it often or live by it. I also like to watch for things like the 50 DMA crossing above the 200 DMA and stuff like that. But how many Nasdaq stocks have patterns like that! Some Nasdaq stocks are down so much you can't even see a 50 or 200 DMA on a short term chart! They are way up in the stratosphere. I have to admit I was pretty proud of myself when I saw a chart of QCOM a few months ago. It looked like a beautiful cup and handle or bowl or saucer or whatever you call it. It looked like it was definitely going higher, but I saw such a weak market that I wasn't ready to play. Sure enough, QCOM has been bucking this weak market for the last few months. More importantly, many times TA doesn't always get you in at the bottom. (or out at the top). Practically every Nasdaq stock has a broken chart, and TA will not get you in at the cheapest prices. It may tell you to stay away sometimes, or that a significant breakout has occurred, but it doesn't tell you to jump in when everything is breaking down and all is bleak. There is a far better indicator for trying to get you in near a bottom. That is sentiment, which is my favorite indicator. Sentiment was out of control in March when stuff was up too much, and it was overly negative when we "bottomed" (hopefully :) this time around. I use a very crude form of TA plus sentiment and FA all rolled into one to try to come up with my picks. As for JNPR, my TA take FWIW is that it looks like it ran out of gas right as it nearly bumped up against the downtrend line yesterday. Actually I think TA folks say it got near the top of the "channel". I don't think it quite hit the actual downtrend line. It couldn't make much headroom today because it looks like today's high was only 15/16 higher than yesterday's close. It also couldn't better yesterday's intraday high of 136. It also closed below it's opening price, which was lower than the previous close. I don't know if any of this means a damn thing, but I know that these are some of things traders look at. I think most of the people who use TA only would stay away from JNPR because it's chart is broken and they would want to wait until it could move above the downtrend line. I can see positives things about JNPR as well though. For one thing, JNPR made a higher low on this retest of the 2288 level. But I don't know if that means squat, because CSCO made a lower low on the retest but look how much that rallied yesterday, and then continued to rally today. So all this adds up to me not knowing squat about JNPR TA except to say that I wouldn't play JNPR for a few reasons (many of them fundamental). On the other hand I am constructive on the market, especially companies like JNPR which haven't disappointed the street and are executing well. So JNPR could easily be lifted by the rising tide of this market. I think if JNPR could start moving to 140 on decent volume it will be a good bet for a run to the mid 160's. There is the 50 and 200 DMA averages right there around 150-155. (I didn't look up the exact figures just a rough look). But it looks like in prior rallies the moving average didn't necessarily stop JNPR and it broke above briefly before turning lower. So it would seem logical to me that JNPR would probably not run out of gas at the 150-155 level, but could make it to the 160's (where I see some resistance) if it could clear 138-140 on good volume. So if you're a scalper I think you could buy at 140 on good volume and probably see a minimum 15 points. I think there is downside risk to the low 80's. Please all you TA fanatics out there don't make fun of my crude TA analysis! TA is not my specialty, but I was asked!