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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (65922)	1/5/2001 1:43:26 AM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Thank You. After looking at the Mountain of data, how could anyone be less then bullish. Greg

To: Vitas who wrote (65922)	1/5/2001 7:37:44 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

re: rate cuts In 1998, it was September 29, just before the market bottomed in October 8. the-privateer.com EDIT: I see you qualified it as the symbolic Discount Rate.

To: Vitas who wrote (65922)	1/5/2001 10:32:42 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I am happy to hear from you. I am distracted by a project and have little time to post notes anymore. However, take a look at your rates for April 1933 (from Hoover to Roosevelt) and from December 1974 (the end of the killer bear and beginning of right shoulder of the inverse H&S that ended in 1982). For each of those big gains, the country and economy was coming out of the toilet. I don't think the country or the market has been to the bathroom yet. So I think we should be prepared for more modest gains. Take 20 percent. A 20 percent gain in the Willshire from 12,000 is 14,400. A 20 percent gain in the NASDAQ Composite from 2400 is 2880. A 20 percent gain in the INDU from an earlier low of 9775 is 11730. If individuals find these gains acceptable, they will be in good shape. With a 20 percent bull market, we will reach new highs in the INDU only. Unfortunately, I believe that many are still dreaming about a 100 percent rally or more. So many have only been kicked into the hallway approaching the bathroom. Take a look at what has been done with the Dow Jones utilities in the last few days. Hell, with that movement index options are a viable speculation in the Dow Utilities. One part of my analysis was ready to point to a major bottom within a month last week. However, another part shows an approaching top. I don't play conflicting signals. (By the way, my thoughts are in regard to positions of several months or so at this point.) I think that there will be opportunities over the next year to pick up some long-term values. That is my plan for now. Here are a couple of things I am watching. The KOSPI is following the standard DOW Theory three moves (and two corrective moves) within a trend pattern. It looks like the second move down may have ended. Let's see if 500 is tested again. quote.yahoo.com^KS11&d=5y Here is my longer term favorite. If the NIKKEI holds the October 1998 lows, we should have an opportunity in two or three years. Even now, it could approach 20,000 in the shorter term if this pattern continues to play out. Compare it to the INDU pattern from 1968 to 1982. quote.yahoo.com^N225&d=my Oh by the way, if the NIKKEI does not hold the October 1998 bottom, find a fallout shelter.