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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevinMark who wrote (65930)	1/5/2001 2:39:25 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

KM, Using your example, I would consider the current technological stage to be that of the black and white television. I believe that the "color television" has yet to come to market. I believe that the "color television" stage will come when the bandwidth bottleneck in the last mile is broken. (I am talking about a minimum of 100Mbps to the home and more to the enterprise). I think that this will come when fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) is a reality. This type of bandwidth in the last mile will make viable many applications which are not practical with today's telecommunications infrastructure, as well as open the door to applications which are just glints in the eyes of future innovators. JXM

To: KevinMark who wrote (65930)	1/5/2001 2:43:47 AM
From: iod_sherwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

that's pretty much inline with some of my thoughts as well. it's actually worse penetration than you think... most asians in the more urbanized populace have multiple cell phones already... one for family, one for business, one for spouses/significant others.... one for drug.. er.. ok don't go there... anyhow... cell phone penetration is pretty much done its thing for now from the traditional perspective... migrating to 3G will be interesting, but also involve way more capital than most firms can properly plan out right now. anyways.. the bulk of it is that we normally follow along an evolutionary concept known as punctuated equilibria... everynow and then boom, some great invention/idea spikes us through technology wise and we embrace it to the max.... then we do a few cycles of consolidation before the next big thing hits... the people looking for big bounces and calling for big moves back on the nasdaq are basically disappointed individuals and groups that probably didn't do so hot last year because they too eagerly joined the flock... ultimately the price to earnings and price to sales numbers have meaning, they have value. u can only discount so much... anyways... i've said my 4cents now...

To: KevinMark who wrote (65930)	1/5/2001 9:01:57 AM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 99985

hows' about the rest of the world entering a growth phase?

To: KevinMark who wrote (65930)	1/5/2001 9:21:26 AM
From: Boplicity	Respond to of 99985

re: I'm not so sure there is anything on the horizon that can, and will change the way we all live in the near future as much as the automobile, color television, cell-phone, and the personal computer have done over the last 100 years. Therefore, can we really expect to reach new highs anytime soon on current technology? Probably not, therefore I suspect we will too, have ourselves a very lengthy trading range for a number of years, before we ever see the likes of 5000 again. here it is--->Broadband for the Masses. Greg

To: KevinMark who wrote (65930)	1/5/2001 9:22:40 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99985

KM, I think that the 50/60' period of relative prosperity was due to to at least three independent factors, the end of the war and the depression, technology as you mentioned, and the Marshall plan. The first element "reset the economy" by first cleaning the deck from the depression era and the conversion from a "war economy" to a "relative peace" economy, it also created a bulge of "households creation", all together keeping growth in demand and supply. Technology (and not just Television, but transportation as well, including an oft forgotten parameter, the creation of the interstate highways system, a huge stimulus economically, but also in providing a more rational distribution systems for goods and demand for cars to use these highways). Last, the Mrashal plan created ready markets for our own goods in Europe. I am sure that others will point to additional and different causes to that period unique behavior, including the psychological factors in the investing public. Zeev