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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gnuman who wrote (63744)	1/5/2001 9:19:22 AM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Gene, Based on the known Agreements, why is Q1'01 consensus so low? Does Q1 include fee's from Q4 shipments? If so that would be about 40% of W/W DRAM shipments in the Quarter, wouldn't it? Or is there a two quarter slip for revenue recognition? Excellent questions and I'll ask them at the annual meeting. I've never heard them mention anything about two-quarter shifts in revenue recognition. Dave

To: gnuman who wrote (63744)	1/5/2001 9:48:51 AM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 93625

Gene, RE: Based on the known Agreements, why is Q1'01 consensus so low? Does Q1 include fee's from Q4 shipments? If so that would be about 40% of W/W DRAM shipments in the Quarter, wouldn't it? Or is there a two quarter slip for revenue recognition? How about this for another reason: The only analysts that officially cover RMBS are bullish analysts, outside of Drew Peck at Cowen. All of the other analysts have 'buy' ratings. It is in their best interests to make sure that RMBS does not even miss estimates. In the egocentric world that is Wall Street, most analysts believe that if they publish an estimate, the market will automatically discount those estimates. Thus, when the company exceeds those estimates, the stock will react accordingly. Alas, that game doesn't work so well in real life, and the market tends to discount a more realistic number. But that doesn't prevent the analysts from trying to game the system.