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To: slacker711 who wrote (91308)1/5/2001 11:11:26 AM
From: foundation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
France 44%, Germany 83%, Incredible....
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Tero Kuittinen
Europa, Europa
1/05/01 9:44 AM ET
The recent European mobile numbers from the Xmas quarter present one reason why EU may
outperform the US economy in the near term. The moribund PC industry is currently a dead weight on
the American economy. The European IT industry hitched its wagon to mobile telecom – and the latest
information shows that there are reasons for cheer on this front. Phone sales kept rocketing across
the continent during the fourth quarter of 2000. For the full year, major countries showed 40-80%
sales growth. Crucially, this has triggered an early mobile data bonanza for operators. Text message
traffic for Xmas quarter was more than 500% above the 4Q 1999 levels.

These are numbers that the PC and internet industries were not able to create outside of America.
Many major US companies are probably starting to realize that they have bet on the wrong horse. In
contrast, the European semiconductor and software industries have latched on mobile telecom years
ago. Operators may be staggering under huge debt loads – but the new figures show that there is
exploding demand for mobile data. Each text message costs around 5-10 cents and carries profit
margins in high triple figures. As the monthly volume now tops ten billion messages, the profit
creation in this niche alone is poised to beat the entire global car industry.

long on Europe
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Tero Kuittinen
Revenge??
1/05/01 10:44 AM ET
I’m boring people into tears with this daily operator-gush – but I can’t believe the strength that we’re
seeing in mobile operators. Even universally loathed pig stocks of 2000 like AWE are clinging to their
awesome weekly gains. Verizon, Sprint, Voicestream – all of a sudden, it’s all good. I don’t
necessarily trust this move in the short term, but it’s a huge relief for associated mobile companies in
infra, software and services.

Even if you hate operators as investments – and don’t we all after last year – this week’s snap-back
shows that investors are having second thoughts about the huge swing of last year. Which was
mainly from telecom into healthcare. Mobile manics may get their revenge this year. The rotting
carcass of internet sector is still stinking up Nasdaq… but other sectors seem willing to claw back.
The key here is the actual growth statistics now being released about 4Q 2000 mobile subscriber
and data traffic situation. Apparently investors were not prepared for good news after the PC
calamities.

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