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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave B who wrote (63755)	1/5/2001 11:46:35 AM
From: Estephen	Respond to of 93625

Message 15130297

To: Dave B who wrote (63755)	1/5/2001 1:06:35 PM
From: gnuman	Respond to of 93625

Dave, re: "At the risk of getting you embroiled in an on-line slugfest, how do you break out the CY2000Q4 and CY2001 market revenue numbers by product type (SDRAM, DDR, RDRAM)? If SDRAM is 80% of the market in 2001, and RMBS gets royalties on roughly 50% of that at say a rate of .75%, what number do you get for SDRAM royalties?" My WAG. Q4'00 W/W DRAM ~$7.5B DRDRAM ~ $0.375B DDR ~ $0.125B SDRAM/Other DRAM ~ $7B FY'01 FY'01 W/W DRAM ~ $40B DRDRAM ~ $3.5B DDR ~ $1.5B SDRAM/Other DRAM ~ $35B I have no idea what percent of "other DRAM" is covered by the IP, but I think very conservatively I can use $30B for SDRAM. (Also remember that ~40% of DRAM revenues are generated out side the Computer and Peripheral segments). Per your parameters, SDRAM Royalties: $30B x 0.5 x 0.0075 = $113M This is a pure WAG based on my estimate of quantities and ASP's. I'm not going to get in a slugfest. Nor am I going to spend time justifying my WAG. What you see is what you get. <VBG>

To: Dave B who wrote (63755)	1/5/2001 3:03:02 PM
From: gnuman	Respond to of 93625

Dave. Some Samsung forecasts. I think you'll get a kick out of these. Seoul, South Korea, January, 18, 1999 – Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., has started mass production of Rambus DRAMs, the next-generation standard memory device. The company has gained a leading position in the market for memory chips that will replace synchronous DRAM. The Rambus DRAM is expected to be used as main memory in 30% of new PCs this year. The worldwide Rambus DRAM market is forecast to reach US $2.6 billion this year, and soar to US $13.5 billion in 2000. Early in the next century, over half of all memory chips will be Rambus DRAM. usa.samsungsemi.com Samsung Begins Mass Production of Second-Generation Rambus(R) DRAM Sep 09, 1999 Applications that require super-fast memory are increasing rapidly. Thus, RDRAM demand is forecast to represent 30-percent of the entire DRAM market in 2000 and to increase to 50% of all DRAMs sold by 2001. (Note: They're talking units, not revenues in the last one). samsungelectronics.com I suspect if either of those scenarios had happened there would be fewer lawyers. <G>

To: Dave B who wrote (63755)	1/6/2001 11:45:42 AM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

re: ANNUAL MEETING Longs List Expanded Mihaela ribman cellhigh denni rash John Walliker Alan Hume anandnvi Lizzie Tudor jhg in kc Pat Hughes REH jim kelley Don Green Orion mishedlo blake_paterson FinallyThere Pompsander jopawa John Dodson Barry Grossman Multicollinearity The Prophet Stuart Steele mindanao bp unclewest rosemary tenchusatsu capt rocky Dave B victor lazlo richard surckla Dan burton Sam Mohamed Saba Steve Lee Mihaela ekid vc21 jaall jdaasoc jim kelley Rich 1 Estephen DHaaland from Yahoo: Fneww Hodb Quad pumped abby Swizzelstick98 shortingrambusissuicide kreziglu artwz bumsteer RickABrown Maxclimbthrust Jph_ma Jsswept Bdabigdog2 Croaker_frog ptnewell If you are not on this list and want to be, please PM me and I will add. If you are on this list please PM DaveB to RSVP for a reunion after the S/H Meeting. If you are on this list and do NOT want to be, please PM me and I will delete <G>. DaveB, where the hell are we meeting and when <G>?

To: Dave B who wrote (63755)	1/11/2001 8:42:40 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Dave, Intel says it can ship 18 - 20M P4's this year. Per Joe Osha: Interestingly, our most recent checks suggest that Intel is being very aggressive in positioning P4 in the marketplace – we've heard reports of RDRAM being expedited for P4 platforms, and our checks indicate that Intel is telling PC makers that it could deliver 18 to 20 million P4 units during 2000. (Sic, 2001). (Thanks to dhellman for link). Message 15162308 (FYI, in my Jan 5 WAG of $3.5B RDRAM for 2001 I used 15M P4's). If they meet that goal, ~15% of PC's will be P4 this year. If I assume a linear ramp from say, 0.25M units in January, the run rate would be ~3M/mo in December. (A run rate of about 25% of all PC's. Coincidently what I predicted as upside going out of the year). What percent of P4's will be RDRAM in December is an interesting question. JMHO's