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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDinBaltimore who wrote (36180)	1/5/2001 12:39:09 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

R word.. JdIn.. show me the recession? Two quarters of negative growth is technically a recession, on the contarary we are seeing some stable prices and a slowing economy. Carter era, the wealth creation of the last 1 and half decade has added 15 trillion to national wealth (Forbes) although 1.5 trillion was added to the debt, every debt $ added 15 $ to the national wealth, the productivity gains since last 15 years have been un//lled, a comparison of this economic model to Carter is gross academic error that I repectfully would reject. In a recession or pre-recession environment BKX do not trade at new or near new highs, the companies revenues do not maintain from 30% plus to 10-15% plus growth rate, the market had a inbuilt growth rate of 30% on high P/E stocks now that has to trimmed to 10-15% that meant a drop of momentum of the market, from 5000 plus to 2500 we have seen that cut, now if the earnings and new stance of Fed revitalise the economy the 10-15% growth rate in earnings of the Tech sector may propel us to better pastures, the problem with the present situation is the percarious situation of the eaker hands who need to manage stay afloat due to extended nature of this correction, I would like to think that this new fed cutting and this new productive economy is not dead and cannot be sacrificed on the altar of 'malaised economy of Carter era', it simply show that how oversimplification has resulted into death knell for many weaker holders, oversimplification and absurd comparisons to Japan or stagflation may hold the market down few days but the strangle hold to break becomes thatm ore difficult as the ability of the market bears weaken with new evidence of better future.. I think it is not that bears who will win it will be the nOK and TXN who will ultimately comeout winner, for short trades nothing is better than trading future options to protect and average down your holding cost..

To: JDinBaltimore who wrote (36180)	1/8/2001 8:15:38 PM
From: Crystal ball	Respond to of 50167

No, Worse would be no Tax Cuts and No Income Tax from down recession economy that ran out of gas and money to fuel it forward, then you have a big big deficit and no chance for a surplus. The key is to keep the economy from running out of gas and money, to fuel it forward, and by this I do not mean "trickle down" or VooDoo economics either. Larry Kudlow, is right on point, we need marginal tax rates cuts FOR EVERYONE to put the money back into Business to Business but also in the hands of Mom & Pop, for Consumer to Business buying in the retail sector as well as Business to Consumer, and in that way, B2B will take care of itself. The laws of economics have never been repealed, all these CEOs and CFOs really are overpaid, because they do not follow simple supply demand and price. If there is higher demand, they should have increase prices to meet demand at the current supply until they received profits to expand their plants, instead they got caught up in borrowing at then lower interest rates, for the wrong reason of oversupply to meet the increased demand at the same or competitive lower prices, which defies basic business management principles. This is especially so when the CEOs and CFOs were caught off guard, with no contingency plan to for higher interest rate costs of borrowing when the Fed came along starting last June and very much last Fall and this past Winter and Spring and jacked up Fed interest rates. Now, these companies are left with incompleted expansion plans, high inventory levels, like Apple (AAPL) requiring PRICE CUTS leading to larger than life DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES WHILE INTEREST RATES AND TAX RATES ARE STILL HIGH.....This is the formula for a DEPRESSION WITHOUT AN INFLATIONARY RECESSION!!!! Thats why Bush needs to do the fiscal policy warfare with the federal reserves monetary policy by #1 passing a very speedy TAX CUT and #2 Re-Structuring Treasury BACK TO 30 Year LONG BONDS and not "Europeanized" 20 year Bonds as they have under the short failed term of Larry Summers coordinated by Alan Greenspan; then #3 either get someone like Larry Kudlow on the Federal Reserve, Treasury Dept, or Commerce, or instead resturucture the Federal Reserve by dcentralizing it, eliminating the post of Fed Chairman and just creating the regional board of governors that vote, and vote weekly on Fed rates rather than approx. monthly FOMC meetings, and really, why not Daily like Treasuries??? Thats why I am strong on CSCO and PALM and other DECNTRALIZED INTERNET WIRELESS HIGH TECH Blue Chips, even INTC, AMD, etc etc because these will continue to grow as their infrastructure will grow under ANY economy unlike the other more sensitive interest and sensitive petro/oil/energy heavy companies. I am, Truly your$, -Crystal Ball I am,