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To: sandeep who wrote (54661)	1/5/2001 1:57:24 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Of all the Myths of this bubble the Productivity/slash internet thing is the greatest. What a joke. I have tried to explain to people that inventions such as the AUTO/TELEPHONE/ELECTRICITY etc were way more productivity enhancing then the INTERNET. I think the Internet is great and I think Cell phones are great. They have made people more productive. However, they are not nearly as influential as the stride made in the late 1800's. Its like saying That benaculars are more production inhancing then Eyesight. If there could be a crash in 29' there sure could be today(not that I am saying it will). Productivity means nothing if there is no customer.

To: sandeep who wrote (54661)	1/5/2001 2:00:22 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I thought we had already covered this clown, new-era, productivity thing. -g The S&P in 1980, 20 years ago as you say, was somewhere in the low 100's. Do you really think that we are 12 times more productive now? That's an absurd number.

To: sandeep who wrote (54661)	1/5/2001 2:17:21 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

watch it there... you're starting to spout some pretty clownish views there -g-

To: sandeep who wrote (54661)	1/5/2001 2:19:44 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 436258

it's not reality that needs to catch up with stock prices, it's the other way around. we have debated the productivity issue to death here already. of course it has risen. but it is typical for disinflation asset bubbles that they occur when productivity rises. productivity rose e.g. MUCH FASTER during the 1920's than today. this is what seduces the CB to keep rates too low for too long, resulting in unsustainable credit and asset bubbles. you be my guest and don't worry about it...to come back to one of your arguments, in 1929 they also had "more weapons to combat most problems which they didn't have 20 years earlier". you can say that at any time in history, because we have constant progress. but it happens in waves...two steps forward, one back. the Roman empire was the pinnacle of civilization at one point, and its final bear market went to zero actually. 500 years after its demise, humanity had been thrown back into the 'dark ages', actually LOSING knowledge that had been gained earlier, and having to re-discover it. that wasn't ONE but five steps back. i cite this extreme example mainly for the reason to illustrate that there is no reason to be smug and confident about a civilization's ability and technological capabilities when it comes to combating one of the periodic down waves in human progress. i am not trying to say we'll see a downturn of similar proportions. only that you have to moderate your expectations...things are in constant flux, and the social mood has changed irrevocably from bull to bear imo. and that means the bear will have its way, and bring stocks back to levels where they once again represent value.

To: sandeep who wrote (54661)	1/5/2001 2:21:00 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Respond to of 436258

sandeep - ...Heinz, isn't productivity really much higher than 10-20 years ago ? With the progress of technology and medicine, it is likely to get higher in the future.... Unit productivity is always increasing, high technology or not. But that implies exactly nothing about the level of the profits that support and sustain stock prices. Almost all productivity improvements are competed away and often represent a cost of business survival, as opposed to a profit bonus to an individual business. The overall statistical productivity increases that are reported in government statistics are due to the withdrawal from the market of the least efficient competitors, but that still impacts the profits of the survivors as they compete with the final inventory liquidations of the losers. When this liquidation phase is over, the survivors still are not able to reap excess profits. New medical technology is both a blessing and a curse. In order to afford the new products and services that result from the new technology, the entire population must either continually upgrade the value of its marginal work product or work longer hours. Regards, Don

To: sandeep who wrote (54661)	1/5/2001 2:37:06 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I had hoped you were joking in your posts of the past week: now i am reassured as i know with this post that you MUST be... But you really should use a smiley face or a LOL you know.... the internet otherwise does not convey emotions in a productive way...LOL