Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (44795)	1/5/2001 8:43:58 PM
From: The Flying Crane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

>>"I could really care less whether or not any of my predictions come true, so long as at the end of the day, our bottom lines have improved."<< If you are basing your trading decision on the outcome of your prediction, then you should "care" about whether or not any of your predictions come true. But if you are making broken clock prediction just for the sake of discussion which has nothing to do with your trading decision, then, yeah... who care if it comes true or not. But don't forget that there are lurkers and readers out there who do care about your predictions.... Thus, readers BEWARE! >>"Do we just keep going down until the Nasdaq is zero and the Dow is 7000? Certainly the way that the Po' Boys have worked these markets during year 2000 has devastated many Individual Investors. I believe if anything, they have improved their strategies to pull the most money possible away from Individual Investors. So looking at the markets a bit upside down is how we've been able to make so many calls in the past . . . and how I am looking at things now."<< No, we don't just keep going down until Nasdaq is zero. We will keep going down to the level where support is strong; but certainly not zero. What devastated many Individual Investors, IMO, is the greed factor and their inexperience in taking losses. Most of the Individual Investors are not professional and therefore, don't know how to deal with the emotional side of taking losses. Because they couldn't handle taking losses, they resorted to "hoping" that the market would turn-around. IMO, I believe there were too much "hope" being placed on "expectation" of a Fall rally last year that most neglected to take their early losses from the early Summer sell-off. When the Fall rally failed to materialize, the agony of a deeper losses is what devastated many Individual Investors, IMO. >>"Question: When was the last time that the markets did what everyone expected them to do? If they moved in a random manner, the broken clock would be right twice a day. But when manipulated as they are. . . even that method of play does not work as you would expect."<< IMO, the market NEVER ever did what everyone "expected" it to do. The market is simply a reaction to what the BIG MONEY is doing. The downtrend you saw from Sept 2000 is a result of BIG MONEY leaving the stock market. It is just that simple. The broken clock will be right twice a day regardless of whether it is random or manipulated. If it is random, twice a day (figure of speech) will be a normal thing. But if there is a true manipulation going on, then it should be even easier to find the true clock time because the manipulation will create a pattern over time. If it is still random even with manipulation, then there is NO manipulation because apparently there are other forces that forced the hand of the manipulators. Since Sept 2000, there have been constant stream of bad earnings report and warnings that flooded the newswire from market leaders. What do you expect to happen? Of course, the market will sell off. Is this manipulation? I don't think so. It is just simply corporate reporting. However, those nasty "buy" recommendations that came before bad news come around may be, IMO, manipulation. Assume you can prove that the analysts know about the impending bad news. >>"I mean step back and look at the broader picture. . . .no, I mean REALLY broad. Who owns the FED? It is well believed that the Federal Reserve System [a private corporation] is owned by the massive banking families. ."<< I think you may be getting a little overboard here. <g> Why make everything so complicated? Market is simply selling off because it is going thru a normal economic cycle of boom and bust. The Fed has been making interest rate policy to combat inflation and recession for a long time. If you want to call it manipulation, so be it. As a trader, I like to see what the BIG MONEY is doing more than what the FED may or may not be doing. To do this, you look at the chart. Right now, in its simplest form, the chart is showing a downward trend. You can turn the chart upside down if you want, but it doesn't change the fact that the BIG MONEY is selling off. Oh yeah, we don't need Softies to tell us that the market is heading south. You can just grab anyone off the street, show them the chart, and he/she will tell you that it looks like it is going down. <g> >>"So we don't ask whether or not we are being manipulated. . . we merely examine on what level, to what extent and how the manipulation is occurring."<< Do you know you can do this by looking at the chart too? Just follow the direction of overall trend. All those zig-zags you see in the chart must be the manipulation you are talking about... Rande, thanks for the interesting discussion. It's a good break from the routine... <g>