Re: More Boom But Gloom
>> Mobile Boom Spreads As Report Predicts Bleak Future
Anne Young
Total Telecom
05 January 2001
More mobile operators in Europe, the United States and Asia revealed booming user figures Friday, following Thursday's reports of exponential subscriber growth in western Europe.
But the figures coincided with an analyst report that predicted gloomy times ahead for Europe's mobile operators - especially for new entrants that have won licenses to provide third-generation services.
And Then There Were Five?
The report, from Amsterdam-based Forrester Research BV, said mobile penetration in Europe would reach saturation point at 76% in 2005. This, added to the cost of building UMTS networks and combating high levels of churn, will force newer operators out of the market and a consolidation of existing operators, said Forrester.
The report's author, analyst Lars Godell, said the 26 operators interviewed for the report expect mobile Internet usage and subscriptions to offset falling revenue from voice and messaging services, but he believes this is not going to happen. Instead, the report predicts that operating profits will decline from 2003, turn negative in 2007, and recover only in 2013.
In Godell's view, "We expect that consolidation will leave only five groups serving all mobile users in Europe by 2008."
See www.forrester.com for more details about the report.
Global Boom
Meanwhile, figures published by Vodafone and Orange of the United Kingdom, Telstra and C&W Optus of Australia, Verizon Wireless in the United States and KDDI of Japan indicated that the consumer love affair with the mobile phone continues unabated.
In the highly competitive U.K. market, Vodafone, the world's biggest operator, gained 1.42 million new customers in the fourth quarter, raising its total subscribers to 11.7 million. Globally, Vodafone reported underlying growth of 7.9 million customers. In a statement the company said 13.2 million customers were gained overall during the quarter, bringing the total proportionate customer base to 78.7 million.
Orange added a further 1.56 million U.K. users, reaching 9.83 million in total. Almost all new customers went for the pre-pay rather than contract packages.
Orange Set to Pip Cellnet?
Both companies had record quarters, with Orange tipped to overtake BT Cellnet to become the second-largest U.K. operator. However, a report in Friday's The Times said Cellnet looked set to keep its number-two position. The report implies Cellnet added at least 1.1 million customers in the Christmas quarter, above most expectations. Cellnet told Reuters on Thursday that its sales exceeded its own forecasts.
A spokeswoman from BT Cellnet told Total Telecom that sales figures for the final quarter would be released on Monday or Tuesday next week.
Cellnet Q1 to Benefit from RSL Com Deal
Cellnet's bid to keep its place will also be boosted by a deal announced Friday to buy U.K. subscribers from RSL Com, which is following its strategy to move away from consumer business to concentrate on corporate services.
According to a statement, BT Cellnet has bought 70% of RSL Com's U.K. consumers for around £10 million. RSL Com previously provided billing and customer-support services for these customers, and offered them connections to either Cellnet's or Vodafone's networks.
The smallest mobile operator in the U.K., One 2 One, told Total Telecom it would release its Q4 figures on Monday.
Antipodean Demand
In other parts of the world, Australia's Telstra and C&W Optus saw pleasing growth in Q4. According to Reuters, Telstra said it added 340,000 net new mobile phone customers in the December quarter, just topping the 338,000 added by its smaller rival Optus.
Optus's Q4 performance, a record figure for the group, boosted its mobile customer numbers by 11% to more than 3.4 million, while Telstra's rose to about 4.8 million.
Mobile sales boomed over Christmas, while Internet access WAP phone sales and SMS message use also broke new records, C&W Optus managing director, mobile, Paul O'Sullivan, said in a statement.
Talking Japanese
In Japan, the second-largest carrier DDI Corp., known as KDDI, said Friday that it added 190,000 net new mobile phone subscribers in December, several times its recent pace of monthly growth, according to Reuters.
KDDI president Yusai Okuyama told Reuters that newly introduced student discount rates were taking hold and boosting subscriber growth, which stood at 70,700 in November, 10,100 in October and 15,200 in September.
United States
In the United States, Verizon Wireless, the biggest U.S. wireless phone company, said it added more than 1.2 million net new customers in the fourth quarter.
The company said in a statement that for the year, total customers grew by 3.7 million to 27.5 million.
Verizon Wireless is a joint venture of Verizon Communications and Vodafone.
Spanish Saturation
And not to be outdone, Spain also reported a mobile boom in the final quarter. According to Reuters, the number of mobile phone users in Spain rose 63% in 2000 to 24.2 million and the market is showing signs of saturation, Spanish business daily Cinco Dias reported Friday.
In 1999 the number of users grew 111% to 15 million.
Telefonica Moviles maintained its leading position with 13.58 million clients, or 56% of the market, the paper said, citing market sources.
Airtel, controlled by Vodafone, had 28.5% of the market with 6.9 million clients and Amena - owned by Telecom Italia and power firms Endesa and Union Fenosa - had 3.73 million users, or a 15.4% share, the report said.
Sixty percent of the entire Spanish population now has a mobile phone. <<
- Eric - |
