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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eichler who wrote (66041)	1/5/2001 6:34:03 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi eichler, Thanks for a great post. As you say nothing is yet definitive. Heck in 30 years of investing I don't think I ever knew with any degree of certainty whether the market would be bull of bear in six months. Don't fight the tape and don't fight market momentum have held me in good stead those few times I had the good sense to pay attention. I agree with your take on the near violent changes of emotion from day to day. This market may well write a new page for the market history books over the next few trading days. The historical odds are about 8 in 10 that the S&P bottom has been seen. There is a 20% chance that it retests 1240-50 level. If the market closes anywhere beneath 1243, then to my knowledge, it will be writing a new page in the market history books for price action in the first 3 months after a discount rate/fed funds cut. The markets wrote new pages in the history books on the way up so they certainly may do the same on the way down. Intraday readings near the end of the day today seem to have increased the odds that both the NAZ and the S&P will see additional selling on Monday. I have yet to see the one technical item that I was looking for which was a Put to call ratio of 1.00 or higher. I don't think we have to see that but I may be wrong. We are currently in NAZ support that runs down to 2359... Have some more that runs from 2250 to 2300 and a thin line between 2150 and 2200. Yes we are again within spitting distance of the NAZ channel bottom and I admit my mouth is dry.... The technical condition is not all that attractive for Monday but perhaps things will look better then. Regards, Mike