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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54914)	1/5/2001 8:37:34 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

hmmmm..... i need to give that some thought. 12k i thought was a bit high on what we discussed.... 8k i need to think about and test the waters a bit...though of course it is absolutely in the realm of possibilities...esp if the contruction group doesn't get grace etc etc etc..... that will be the epi center of the ultimate mark to market.... hmmm....

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54914)	1/6/2001 7:33:26 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz: Let them clean up their banking mess first. Methinks the Japanese market will really flop when that inevitable exercise is finally put into operation. Also, as the U.S. economy grinds to a crawl, Japanese exports to "the buyer of last resort" implode even further. While I hope that I am wrong in my analysis, the current malaise sure walks, talks and smells like a global deflationary spiral. Best, Earlie

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54914)	1/6/2001 5:30:41 PM
From: Grandk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Any thoughts on this: globalsources.com

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54914)	1/6/2001 6:58:24 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, Der Spiegel - der ho ho ho on GATA spiegel.de

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54914)	1/6/2001 10:08:28 PM
From: prosperous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Looking at the S&P 500 chart,here is what I speculate (worth what you paid for it of course:-)): 2 year chart: quote.yahoo.com It is in the process of making a head and shoulder: left shoulder from Feb 99 to Nov 99, head from Nov 99 till Jan 01. It looks like it could make a right shoulder from now on that could potentially form over next 6-9 months peaking somewhere to 1400 around March-April 2001 period. Breaks the neckline some time in October 2001 and we see a year end low on S&P at about 1000 by end of 2001. UNLESS we are able to break above 1420 or consolidate here for another year and a half. I think the Fed will agressively cut rates to support S&P falling below the neck line around 1270 and this is what will give rise to the right shoulder spike to 1420 on a low volume (important for H&S pattern to have lowvol in the right shoulder) where people will reduce their contributions to S&P seeing the current performance/env and a few specultors will buy thinking that rate cuts have done the deed. If the neckline of this H&S gets broken we move to 1000 rapidly by the end of 2001. If we looks further at the 5 year chart of S&P: quote.yahoo.com There will be another H&S that can potentially form after we hit the first target at 1000. The left shoulder from Jan 98 to Oct 98, the head from Oct 98 to Dec 2001 and the right shoulder to form from Jan 2002 to Oct 2002, if this neckline gets broken we go to about 650 on S&P and may spell a disaster not only for US but other places as well. I hope we don't go there and we will be able to consolidate around 1000 to 1150 during year 2002 and then begin the next bull market. Since S&P is the strongest index it will probably be the last one to fall so the timelines would indicate the upper bound on the unfolding of the bear, that is, NAZ and S&P would see their downsides much earlier. So the soft landing scenarios: -we consolidate around 1270-1400 on S&P for about 1-1.5 year and not break below the neckline to start another bull market in say late 2002 if FED is successful at doing what it is doing and what it thinks it can do -we consolidate around 1000-1150 in 2002 for about a year after breaking through the first H&S, this could be considered as a semi soft or semi hard landing depending on whether you look at the glass as half full or empty The real hard landing scenario: -we go to 650 on S&P 500 in late 2002 and then try to consolidate there Well that is some idle speculation on my part;-). Need some guideline to deciding a strategy. I would like to put probabilities on the above scenarios and currently I see them as 25%, 70%, and 5% on the above respectively.If the high probablity scenario works out, I guess the commercials will have to roll out their short position further out than March 2001. OK OK, I have stretched my neck too long and too thin ;-) Any thoughts? Best regards

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54914)	1/7/2001 4:25:59 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 436258

when this guy gets worried, we should panic -nfg- Message 15137989 i've bookmarked him....