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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (8580)	1/5/2001 8:37:12 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Well I closed out my tech Puts today so I must have done the right thing. ggg I will wait for my signals to tell me to go long. If it another over-exuberant rally, like I expect I will sell right into it again. The following post summs up how I feel about the market. I wrote it a couple days ago and posted it on Vendit's thread for comment. ======================================================== Thread, This is what I decided, It is in response to some questions I received from another poster. It also contains references to someone who has mocked me as being the high priest of doom and gloom for my bearish stances as of late. 1)Take FA and throw it out the window. 2)Take TA and throw it out the window. 3)Take Gorilla gaming and throw it out the window. 4)Take the random walk and throw it out the window. 5)Take my list of "absurd values" and throw it right out the window as well. Please do NOT quote me out of context on the above, as I have sure raised some eyebrows on those statements. Before you all shoot me please read on, if you have not yet had a heart attack. The 5 statements above apply to this market and this market only. We are in the final stages of a brutal bear market. This market is driven by two things and two things only: 1) Extreme Fear 2) Greed Very little else matters. What you want to do is quite simple. 1)Buy on EXTREME FEAR. 2)Sell on ANY exuberance whatsoever Forget the charts, forget "absurd values" forget it all - LOL. Since there are far more down days than up days it is important to wait for "EXTREME" fear to buy. Selling on ANY exuberance has worked out best. I was on "rat chat" last night. Most people there in months. All wondering what to buy the evening of the rate cut. I could not figure out why anyone would want to buy the following day that did not buy before these 30% runups. I left and decided to spend the rest of the evening looking for "extreme absurdity" candidates. I found one immediately in RIMM (RIMM always looks like a sure fire sell to me. This morning I bought RIM PUTs as it stalled at 68. IBM at 99 3/4 was also amazingly absurd, and I believe CSCO at 45 was "absurd" as well. Bought LEAP PUTs on both CSCO(at 43 3/4) and IBM(at 97) today. Strike 40, and 90 respectively. Please take my throw it all out the window approach with a grain of salt. FA is important in the sense that you want to know what you are buying (as opposed to throwing darts at the NAZ). TA is important because it helps to know resistance points and support points as a matter of reference. "Absurd Values" helps because it gives you a target to look for in advance, that you might want to buy or sell even if the market is not showing the "extremes" you are waiting for. Gorilla gaming is very important because the Gorillas and Kings offer a great deal of "reserve bounce" if your entry was less than perfect! Only point 4 above is truly correct in retrospect. The random walk theory is 100% worthless! Read the book but throw the theory out the window. The market moves with greed and fear, both of which are far far far from random (and this is true in any market). Sylvester on the FOOL asked me about TA for shorting. TA is TA. News (good or bad) will override TA every time. TA for shorting is exactly the same as TA for longs, except you need to 1) Stand on your head, or 2) Turn the charts upside down (a far simpler task IMO). What I am saying is: Longs need to buy at support and sell at resistance. Bears need to short sell (or buy PUTs) at resistance and cover at support. In this market "support" needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Resistance (except for those "extreme fear" rallies) needs to be paid close close attention to. Also bear in mind something I will now call "TICK FEAR". I suffer from this malady. Fear is a very good thing if you are long, but I have cancelled many a PUT far far too soon when the position turns a point or two. If you are short, try not to act on this malady, unless a good profit is attempting to get away from you. Do not be a pig either. I saw lots of them the day of and the day after the rally. Not closing my RIMM puts after a 27 point drop right before the rate cut would have been extremely piggish on my part. Fortunately I closed them in time. Buying IMB long the day after the rate cut rally at 99, or CSCO at 45, thinking the "market is getting away from me" was extremely piggish, or fearful "BUYING PANIC" or both. Yes there is "BUYING PANIC" as well. Those longs that did not buy before the rat cut, had a "BUYING PANIC" attack today (FEARing the market would get away from them). How much "sideline money" went down the toilet today on "Day Late Buying Panic" is hard for me to estimate. This is the flexibility that one has when he/she can be either long or short. I simply do not care if the market falls to 1900, 1200, or whatever. Nor do I care if it rises to 3500 over the next 3 months. The trend is my friend, and I still say the trend is down. In a sense I was lucky. Greenspan acted mid-day and I could "sense" a change as well as my own "piggish greed" of thinking that RIMM would fall straight to my ultimate goal of 10 to 20. Heck, one can make a living just playing RIMM, or RMBS, or JNPR or whatever, BUT ONLY IF YOU TRADE, and only if you "sell the exuberance" and "buy the fear". Finally, Artie (thank you Artie), asked me how I would like to be addressed. The "High Priest of Doom and Gloom" as Ursula has christened me, (or HPDG as a chosen acronym) is certainly is missing in many respects. 1) High Priest of Doom and Gloom is too long 2)HPDG is simply too hard to remember 3)HPDG is not really catchy or easy to pronounce. So, when soaking my head and deciding on the above "meanings of life" I have decided to change the Acronym for the way I should be addressed to HPOdog.(while wearing the robes that Ursula will send me of course). HPOdog. Pronounced H-P-O-Dog. ggg Ursula, are you working on those robes for me? I will be disappointed if they do not come. LOL Yours, truly The One and Only HPOdog. (without the Robes, often known as M, Mish, or Mishedlo) M

To: Boplicity who wrote (8580)	1/5/2001 10:25:16 PM
From: DaYooper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

We live in the best country on the planet at one of the most exciting times I have ever seen. The promise is large. That's beautiful Greg. And it's exactly my thoughts of earlier today. I did some portfolio re-adjustments based on the gorilla stocks that shot up on Wednesday, namely ntap, jdsu, and sebl (heavy qcom already). That quick, historic spike provided a window into the future. It's where the money will be moving once this is over. And today they were on sale again. I feel like it's 1994 again if you know my meaning. Except now it's wireless, fiber, and storage rather than pc hardware and software (disregarding gorilla sebl for a moment). Wow, the next couple years will be fun. Did you see Abbey on "Wall Street Week"? She's on target once again. Smart lady, no chauvinism intended. Rory