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To: fedhead who wrote (114525)	1/5/2001 11:49:03 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 164684

>> I can buy the bull case except for sentiment indicators which is still way to optimistic for a lasting bottom. << Who cares about a lasting bottom. I'm calling for a rally to 3000. We will cross that bridge when we come to it. >> In 1998 the put /call ratio was over 1 for several days in the Sep - Oct period << I think this can be a misleading figure. A better indicator would be the put to call ratio on the Nasdaq or the QQQ. The rest of the market aside from the techs isn't really that bad. I think you need to look at some put call ratios that focus only on tech. I bet that was quite high. >> Number of bullish investment advisors were 38 % in 1998 bottom. Currently bullish investment advisors % is over 50% << There are several different published reports on bullish sentiment. I saw some that were lower than 38% just a couple weeks ago. I saw some figures that were quoted above 50% a few weeks ago, but going into the end of the year pessimism grew so much that it plummeted like 20% in one week, taking us to the low 30% area. >> The put/call ratio has spiked but immediately come down << Maybe it spiked at the bottom and now it's settling down because we are rallying. I have yet to look at the figures for today, but I bet it went right back up again. >> We need to see more fear don't you think to put in a lasting bottom << There you go with that lasting word again. I don't need a lasting bottom to make money. Just an intermediate term bottom. >> Plus the consensus on Wednesday was that the market had bottomed because the fed eased and we all know how reliable consensus is << In my opinion the market bottomed (at least for a while) 12/20-12/21. Not a couple of days ago. That was a retest of the bottom. >> The rally of the Oct 1998 was met with a lot of skepticism << And so is this one! Don't try to con me into believing that everyone is optimistic today! Skepticism reigns supreme! >> I think its because Greenspan was able to get us out of the mess in 1998 that there is still so much complacency out there in Greenspans ability to bail us out. << You're right. That's probably why this won't be the ultimate bottom in the Nasdaq, just a short to intermediate term bottom. >> (In fact you yourself have complete faith in Greenspan) << Um, you have that backwards. I have no faith in Greenspan! I do believe that there are enough other people out there that do have faith in Greenspan to permit a rally for a while.