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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (44824)	1/6/2001 3:38:47 PM
From: The Flying Crane	Respond to of 57584

>>"If you think this is overboard, you haven't been around very long. I am very tame when discussing injustices in these markets [and elsewhere] compared to when I started."<< No, I haven't been around very long, it was around April of last year that I became a regular reader of your thread. It is hard for me to imagine you're anything other than tame. LOL! My point regarding overbroad is simply to say that we can look at the market thru its most basic essence- the price chart. Anything else, while interesting, is not directly relevant to a trader, IMO. Those who study charts understand that the chart reflected everything there is to know about the stock/index/commodity being charted. Current supply and demand, expectation of news, expectation of earnings or shortfalls, and manipulation if any are all discounted into the price. IMHO, the basic problem of chart reading is that a lot of people already have a broken clock prediction of the future and only want to use the chart to justify and support their prediction. >>"'Just follow the direction of overall trend.' The point to that post was to say that in the past year, such analysis was used AGAINST the individual far too often. . . and often one must read between the lines on the charts to find the real story. That is what we have successfully been doing here for over 2 years."<< I fail to understand your point. How did such analysis was used against the individual? Looking at the Nasdaq chart in 1998, the chart clearly showed a correction from mid-July and bottomed out on early October. The correction to the upside from that point on was very pronounced. So, any seasoned or knowledgeable chart reader could see the change in trend and jumped back in. Your group was not the only group that partook in this exuberant rally. Even Tom and Dick could see the chart showing an upward bias through out the year of 1999 and jumped in. The atmosphere surrounding that HUGE rally was intoxicating. All stock threads were buzzing with activities and everything kept going up. So, who was the individual that was left behind that "such analysis" was used against on? I have to say these were the broken clock predictor of doom and gloom that refused to acknowledge what the chart was telling them all along. Each higher high only convinced them the top was nearing. Thus, robbed away their opportunity to participate in this huge rally. Therefore, IMHO, it is not "such analysis" of following the direction of the overall trend that worked against the individual, it is their stubborness and lack of experience in using, reading, and interpreting the chart that worked against them. IMHO, one of the most common mistake people made when reading and intrepreting chart is that they make a lot of broken clock prediction with the chart. If their prediction failed to materialize, they blamed the chart. But the chart is only a barometer of what the BIG MONEY is doing. The chart doesn't care what kind of wild broken clock prediction you are bestowing on it. It simply tells you what the BIG MONEY is doing right now. So, if you can't figure out what the chart is telling you, as in consolidation with no direction in either way, you simply don't trade. It's that simple. And if the chart is showing an uptrend after a breakout. Well, there you go, the price chart looks like it is trying to go up. Will it continue to go up??? We don't know but the odd is now tip in your favor that it may. Therefore, if you practice good money management, you may be able to catch that uptrend with minimum loss if it turned out to be a headfake. *"What is the price doing right now?"* is the question I constantly asked myself when I'm looking at the chart. If I can't figure it out, I don't trade. If there is a dominating overall trend (either up or down), I will trade only the direction of that dominating overall trend. My odd of success increases when money management (such as cutting losses FAST) is applied in a disciplinary manner. Whoa! I must have been gotten carry away. Babbled too much already again! Already late for my family function... have a good weekend everyone! ps. Not proofreaded or spell-checked...