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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: byhiselo who wrote (44825)1/6/2001 12:36:32 PM
From: JLS  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
I was seeing the same thing, byhiselo. The bad news of those charts, especially the Nasdaq is if you look at where the ADX crossed the green line back in early January when the index was at 4300, it ran roughly another 1000 points before reversing course. Looking back that crossover of the green and red in September gave the warning to clear out, which many of us did and went short. I know I was short a ton of stuff on the Tuesday after Labor Day. But relying on the historical model of a fall tech rally I didn't stay short and began dipping my toes back in which worked out okay if I only held for a few hours. It seemed that anything I held for longer turned sour quick. So the thing to do would have been to keep looking at the ADX. Now it's the only indicator I use along with price and volume and I try to keep the subjective thinking out of my trading, as soon as I do I fall back into the same traps.
stockcharts.com[L,A]WACLYYMY[PB50!B200][VC60][IUB14!LA12,26,9!LL14]

Once the herd starts heading in a certain direction it takes a lot to turn it. Obviously a 50 point basis reduction might not be enough. The $64,000 question is whether the next one which the market is already counting on will do the trick. Then we've got to find out who is going to increase their spending in technology. Much of the fuel for 1999's performance was the ramp up in expenditures for Y2K. Now that everyone has a computer and a cell phone, what's the next greatest technological wonder that we must own?

The only good sign on the charts I see is that the Advance/Decline line in the Dow has been turning up while the index is holding fairly steady. I think we need to watch this for signs of recovery and the Nasdaq may follow it's lead. It's time also to really broaden our scope in terms of investment possibilities. How many were invested in health care and financials this past quarter? How about the Dow transports which performed very well?