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To: GST who wrote (114527)	1/6/2001 1:21:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 164684

>> In Japan it took years -- they all just kept selling and selling and selling, even though the government brought interest rates down to within a hair of zero. << GST, there were rallies for months, even rallies that lasted a couple of years all the way down. You obviously want the Nasdaq to go down 90% all in one month so you can make your fortune and triumphantly move about your business. Why is it so unreasonable to think that maybe we could rally for a month or two (heck I'll even take a week) BEFORE we go into the abyss like you are predicting. >> but to think that a few weeks of selling marks a bottom borders on wishful thinking << Excuse me? A few weeks? Try 10 months, capped off by four straight down months in a row on the Nasdaq. Four months plus a week since we closed down almost 3% percent on the week. It is ridiculous of you to try to claim that the selling has just started a few weeks ago and there has been no serious declines yet on the way down. >> As for your cash on the sidelines theory, this market is getting blood transfusions from AG, << Yeah so, as long as he temporarily stops the bleeding the patient recovers. >> there is no cash on the sidelines waiting to come in << And you claim I haven't looked at the numbers! What about the statistic I heard which said 54% of all contributions went into safe things such as money market funds. It's quite easy to keep your money in a money market fund until you are ready to deploy it. Anyway, it's the institutions who have the power to move this market higher, and they have been raising plenty of cash as well. To say there has been no major cash built up on the sidelines is just plain disingenuous. >> I am hoping for an uptick early in the week on renewed false hopes for an escape from this bear << I'm really glad that there was a nice pullback so you could square your positions ahead of next week. I want everyone to make money. >> But as the graveyard gets closer, it sure seems like the whistling is getting a lot louder and more shrill << Hmm, seems like the bears are screaming just as loud, with some renewed vigor. If I come across as shouting, it's only to be heard above the roar of the growling bears. >> AG will need to cut again next week just to stabilize the market where we are now. << Well don't put this past him. I actually think the market will stabilize on it's own and he won't have to cut again next week, but I definitely would not rule it out as a possibility. >> The warnings you are looking for will be in the conference calls as companies report << And the sellers obviously already know this (does anyone believe we are going to hear wonderful things in the coming weeks?), and that's why they aren't sticking around to hear the conference calls. They are taking profits now. That is a perfect set up for no sellers to be found when the conference calls begin and a plausible reason for a post-earnings rally. Remember when INTC warned? It had gone down 20% that week prior to the warning. When they finally came out and warned, they actually traded higher. So many people KNEW that INTC was going to warn (real big shocker there), that there was no one left to sell when the news actually hit. Do you remember when AMAT reported November 15th? Everyone knew business had gone south in a hurry. It sank from over 53 to 40 in two weeks. It had bounced to 42 3/4 on earnings day, and even though they warned about the next quarter they not only popped in after hours, they were right back into the 50's in less than a month. They almost hit 49 in just a couple of weeks. Even almost two months later, after this terrible slide in the market, AMAT is the same price it was on the day they reported earnings. INTC is about the same price today that they were when they warned 12/08! Even after this nasty slide for the past month. Furthermore, these stocks have had an absence of sellers for the last month or two with NO FED to help them out. I think traders might even be more forgiving this time around if market sentiment improves and there is a belief that the Fed is going to at least help out the economy later in the year. Those stocks went up on horrible news that has only gotten worse with no help from the Fed. With Greenspan lending support I don't see why plenty of companies can't pop after they report earnings in the next couple of weeks.