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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: flatsville who wrote (66065)1/5/2001 11:23:05 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Respond to of 99985
 
IGC is a good company, really the only profitable one in the space, but i doubt they are set up for major breakthrough since to a large extent their activities are in the LT-SC arena, they have some activity in the "HT-SC" arena, but that one is not that "dominant". AMSC, has been losing money for years, and finally withdrew to the LT-SC trench (with SMES) to try and make money, my problem with them is that they are targeting stodgy industries as their clients, and that is rarely an efficient approach. The one I like are still risky and some are not even public. I am trading CDTS and SCON (did both today for some nice intraday profits). Their problem is a slow down in the Cap-ex of their potential clients, the wireless infrastructure, but I think it will come back. I did extremely well with them in early 2000, and now that these are at less than 10% of their peak, they start to look interesting again. For a longer term investment, I think there might still be time. CDTS is trading recently between $5 and $8 and SCON between $3 and $4.5, just trading these "ranges" might be interesting until they finally turn positive cash flow, then their market cap could easily blow in the $1 B range (you need an excited bull market for that kind of valuation, but these will return, in time...)

CDTS has an interesting financial situation, few months back, they issued a convertible, it has a ceiling at just under $17 and a floor just around $10.5. The "floorless feature does not kick in until sometime next June or July. It is my opinion that "the powers" will get this one to trade above that $17/share, to allow the convert to lay out their hedge (they never had a chance). Once they lay out their hedge, you canm almost bet that the "powers" will bring it down pretty close to $10 to get their conversion at the most beneficial rate. Will that scenario work? I don't know, but a similar scenario worked quite well with MVIS and MU in the last two years.

As LG always likes to say, think like a criminal....

Zeev