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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen who wrote (40180)	1/6/2001 5:06:47 AM
From: Yaacov	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Thanks for your post. I am on my way to fly from Milan, Italy to Palm Beach, Florida so I be quick. I fully agree,this market looks like hell. Everybody has warned, and even if Feds cut rate another half percent, most those who have warned will take 3 Q's before show better earnings. Forgive my assertion, but I have been in this market longer before most people on SI were born, I am class of 1935, and I have been fully invested in the market since 1952. I have learned over half a century oone lesson: this market moves not only by higher earnings but also by anticipation of earning, or shall we say it moves on dreams,greed and hopes! After all this like going to Casino in Monte Carlo, we are all dreamers. YOu saw what happened when the rates were cut. You wait for the end of Jan. and when the next cut comes the same will happen. Moral of the story, this is a nasty year and if you want to make money, you have to be like a pirate, hit and run, buy on dips and get out as soon as you have made gain. In my case I have three portfolgios, BONDS for income, LONG, not to be left out if the market flys, and SHORT where I trade on every day. Talk you later Kind regards Yaacov p.s. the Feds are worried to death, I think we will see more cuts, 100 basis point, bu April, and tax cuts to follow. That will revive this economy, in the long run we will do well.

To: Stephen who wrote (40180)	1/7/2001 10:22:04 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Stephen- In your argument with Yaacov, you seem to list a number of FUNDAMENTALS related reasons why the market should go down/stay flat for 2001, vs. TECHNICAL.. Should fundamentals (earnings comparisons) be the cornerstone in your argument? Looking at the flip side, fundamentals for many of companies (whose stocks have gotten absolutely trashed) have been boffo for sometime.....If you look at the ITWO's, NTAP, and even many semi's....you have yet to see any slowdown in a quarterly (we'll see about this quarter)...my point being: There seems to be a disconnect, or at least a huge lag between a companies' fundamentals do...and what the stock price does... Many semi's peaked last summer, and yet earnings for the next 2 quarters were terrific, and are now only likely to start scaling down...that's 6 months in advance (that stock price preceeded fundamentals).. Conversely, let's say that fundamentals for the tech companies start recovering (good y-o-y) comparisons in 4Q this year (let's say that you are 1 Q off)...when do those stocks become a buy? Could it not be possible (also) 6 months in advance (of the improvement in the fundamentals)? That puts us in the April-June range, not end of year.. Also, I recently saw overlapping curves of liquidity vs. Naz...it was amazing how similar the charts looked...given the Fed has now shifted to adding liquidity (and it appears in huge amounts), wouldn't that lead you to believe the stocks could recover (as a liquidity play) alone? After all, when Greenspan "shut things down" earlier this year, stocks took a nosedive very soon after that..within 1-2 months...the Naz hit its peak....(Greenspan put on breaks somewhere between mid-Jan. and mid-Feb, no? March 10th, I believe, was the Naz peak) I am very open to your arguments, but it would seem that liquidity measures are more important to naz stock prices than fundamentals...(of course, I am assuming that the fundamentals will eventually turn- which they should in a souped-up economy). Finally, if I am right, and the liquidity/Naz thing is powerful, surely I am not the only one who sees it, and some money will front-run any actual liquidity bump...so, I would think recovery could happen at almost anytime (if that were the case)...this, combined with pretty good support for a bottom in the hi/low (positive divergence), makes me think it would be dangerous playing the short side here (unless a lower low, and much worse hi/low number is produced) pretty soon...