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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: QwikSand who wrote (40149)	1/6/2001 10:44:51 AM
From: High-Tech East	Respond to of 64865

... I have a friend, a stock broker named Randy, who has 20+ years experience, and is very successful ... he called me Wednesday during the melt-up (after Greenie dropped rates 50 basis points) and said: "I hope you sold your puts, it's going to be straight up from here" ... my response: "No Randy, you are wrong, in fact, I just now bought another put" ... Randy: "Good-bye Ken - click" ... I talked with him the next night after he cooled off - and we are still friends. I talked with my good friend Dave from Chicago on Thursday. He has 30 years of very successful investing experience, and also manages his family trusts ... after going to 95% cash just recently, he bought back in almost 100% Wednesday and Thursday. My opinion ... they are both very wrong ... The problem with many investors right now .. (1) they are influenced by the long bull market that they got very used to, and they are afraid that they will miss the bottom .. (2) many private investors are also influenced by the sell side cheerleaders on CNBC (analysts, brokers, Maria Bartiromo, Mark Haines, Joe Kernen etc.). You never get close to the full story from them. Mostly though, I think people are afraid to miss the bottom ... I am not. Until we get at least past earnings season, I think it is much too early to even nibble ... what if we are not headed for a soft landing, and at the opposite extreme, maybe we are headed for a fairly strong recession ... what if SUNW's P/E returns to 17, like it was when I started buying it in 1997 (NOT THAT I THINK THIS IS LIKELY) ... I am now 36% cash, which percentage will increase to 60-75% (estimate) in the next 45 days (estimate) - after Abiomed gets clinical trials approval ... It is too early to be screwing around in this market. Maybe I am wrong, but that is how I am acting. Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for your investment decisions. Ken Wilson