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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Rowton who wrote (66076)	1/6/2001 9:27:02 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I am bullish. As you hint the markets go up when an interest rate easing cycle starts. I read somewhere today the SP500 has gone up 20% on average in the 12 months following the start of an easing cycle. Just looking for the formations to confirm that the market is going up from here. I figure this situation is a lot like late 98 when there was doom and gloom all around and the market went up... In 1987 people thought the world was coming to an end too :) but it took till 1990 for the the real recession to show up. Basically in the US economy there was a shortage of the three main factors of production: labor (unemployment at 4%), capital (interest rates at 6.5% and the end of the easy IPO era), and resources (high oil and gas prices, electricity shortages). No surprise that the growth rate will slow down. But that doesn't necessarily mean a recession (yet) in terms of actaully declining GDP. David

To: John Rowton who wrote (66076)	1/6/2001 10:02:05 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

now that the boards are mostly bearish >>>>>>>>> john rowton everywhere i read on the boards now is bullish -g-, the worst is over I do know one rule though: do not fight the fed.>>>> there is another rule, "the trend is your friend" in a bull market the bears come out at reactions to the trend and become loud, the bulls do the same in a bear market, people have been calling the bottom since the first week of sept -g-, the market didn't follow the rule you followed, as a matter of fact, after the three steps there was no stumble, but a parabolic blow-off in nasdaq. many think that the market will just turnaround on a dime after one rate reduction - maybe not, it didn't on the upside, the market is loaded up with stocks in the 25-100 p/e range heading into a couple of quarters of flat or even possible declining growth, takes time for fed cuts to work through the system, just like the hikes, investech.com the napm broke below the 98 low, this is not like 98, in 98 the nasdaq created a double bottom base off the asian crisis in 97 and 98, this time we are coming off a parabolic blow-off in which stocks were priced for a "new economy" the level of bearishness required for a bottom may be higher than what we've seen at the present level. as our market sage/maven who was quoted on rooters -g-, volitility will remain, don't be too tied to one position. stockcharts.com[L,A]WACLYYMY[DF][PB50!B200][VC60][IUB14!LA12,26,9] wmt giant weekly shooting star across the downtrendline from the jan top