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To: marginmike who wrote (54986)	1/6/2001 4:59:17 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

MM: There are obvious differences between Japan now and the US in '82. For one thing, we came off a prolonged period of rate hikes which effectively purged bad debts and malinvestments in '82. Out prime at the peak was above 18%. The Japanese financial system is still rife with bad debts that have not been written off, indeed, they are continuing the zero interest rate policies that have failed for years. Fiscal loosening, which spurred the US secular bull in '82 would flat out fail in Japan now. Untill the Japanese financial system experiences the tough love it so desparately needs, there will be no lasting recovery there.

To: marginmike who wrote (54986)	1/6/2001 7:40:34 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 436258

MM: I'm not so sure that the Japanese manufacturers have turned any corner yet. Nor would that fact cause me to buy Japanese stocks. They have to sell their goods to somebody and at the present time, the only consequential buyer is the U.S. Trade among the Asian countries was very vibrant until 1998. Since then, it has been miserable (and for good reason, given the loss of wealth that took place when the Asian markets and currencies were crushed). Both Korea and China are purchasing a lot less from Japan today than they were three years ago, and I can't see this changing for the foreseeable future. I'm not bearish on just Japan, I'm bearish on a global basis. For me, the massive debt that is overwhelming the planet at all levels will need to be cleaned out (via liquidation) before we can get back to investing in a reasonable stock market. Just an opinion. With respect to the U.S. 1990 scene, it was only as a result of a massive injection of liquidity that the tidal wave was postponed. As a result of this move, today, the financial scene is much worse. The current bear market has been slowly but surely picking up momentum. Once it gains critical mass, I expect that no amount of money printing will be able to stop or turn its course. Recall that old phrase from the 1930s ..... "pushing on a string". Deja Vu all over again. Best, Earlie