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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (66106)	1/6/2001 2:22:36 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Prechter-Jan01--"some of the the skyscrapper patterns have already paid back most of the price for their manic booms. However, with retracements of only 50% on the Nazdaq, CSCO and many other stocks have much furthur to fall. Many participants CONTINUE to resist the very idea of "down", using arguments based on fundamentals and the future of technology. If a stock mania were a mechanical system that fed on technology breakthroughs or earnings, their hopes might have a basis for fullfillment. But all history reveals that that the process is a psychological one, and the psychology demands a full retracement of the gains generated by the mass belief in ever-rising prices.."----He says the manic phase on the Naz started at the Oct98 low of about 1300ish-- I might take issue with that and put the manic phase as starting from the july99 low a bit below 2500...although I would agree that the chart went above the long term trendline starting back in late 98. Perhaps the chart would have topped out at about 2800ish in the summer of 99 and proceed normally to return to the l.t. trendline IF it were not for the interruption by the manic phase in July 99 that prevented that from happening....So, from my viewpoint, it is unclear where exactly the 'manic' phase on the nazdaq started. Makes a big difference.---he says Jan will be hard down till late in month

To: Gary Burton who wrote (66106)	1/7/2001 8:33:55 PM
From: Mike M	Respond to of 99985

I haven't followed Prechter for a long time but I don't think he has been in touch with the long term movement of the market since the 87 correction. He missed the top and the bottom. He called for the end of markets as we know them after the crash. I don't recall any recant. I am sure he has done well enough on short term moves to keep some kind of following but he gets my vote for man I would most likely ignore when making "mania" calls...