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To: J Fieb who wrote (2528)	1/8/2001 8:25:24 AM
From: J Fieb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4808

An optics site talks about the BIG trends.... Light Reading Names Top 10 Trends -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEW YORK -- Light Reading, the premiere information resource for the booming optical networking industry, today published a report that identifies the 10 hottest trends in next-generation Internet infrastructure (see Top 10 Trends ). The report, written by Scott Clavenna, Light Reading's director of research, throws the spotlight on issues that promise to dominate optical networking developments in 2001 -- a year in which the success and failure of many companies will hang in the balance. The report shows that a shakeout is inevitable, partly because so many startups have been spawned in this field in the past few years, and partly because service providers are now finding it much tougher to raise money for their expansion plans. “Knowing where the action is going to be in the coming year is the key to success, whether you’re an investor, an equipment supplier, or a service provider,” says Clavenna. “The emphasis is shifting from grabbing market share to making a proper return on investment -- and that will influence the kind of hardware and software carriers will want to buy.” Light Reading’s Top 10 Trends in optical networking are: 1. The Customized Internet: Cash-strapped carriers will find ways of making money out of Internet services, now that they are under increasing pressure to show a decent return on investments. 2. Optical Signaling: Telecom networks will start to become more automated. New hardware and software will eliminate the need for engineers to manually configure customer connections, slashing the time it takes to provide services. 3. Optical Network Management: Software will become the big differentiator among telecom equipment suppliers. 4. Storage: Optical networks will unlock huge demand for the small business equivalent of corporate data centers. 5. Integrated Systems: Packing more into less, whether it’s components or telecom equipment, will be a key to success. 6. Optical Ethernet: The cost argument promises to make this technology unstoppable in metro networks. 7. Optical Access: New technologies will slash the cost of broadband connections, making high-bandwidth services affordable for a greater number of people. 8. Component Integration: Optical subsystems on a single chip will move closer to reality. 9. 40 Gig: The race to deliver the next big step up in transmission technology -- moving from 10 to 40 gigabits a second -- will be won or lost this year. This will push the limits of fundamental physics. 10. The Shakeout: This will be the year when the strong will end up stronger and the weak will go to the wall. Some startup carriers have already gone bust and others are sure to follow. The ones that survive will tend to buy equipment from big companies. That, in turn, will put the squeeze on startup suppliers -- encouraging them to look to be acquired rather than staging IPOs. Light Reading’s Top 10 Trends joins a growing family of Top 10 lists that have become a feature of the fast-growing Website. Other lists include its Top 10 Movers and Shakers, which identifies the people that exercise the most power and influence in the optical networking industry, and Light Reading’s Top 10 Private Companies, which identifies the hottest IPO prospects among optical startups. Other Top 10 Lists are in the pipeline. lightreading.com