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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (114648)	1/6/2001 4:10:09 PM
From: H James Morris	Respond to of 164685

Bill, would you please participate in this survey? But enough of 2000, a year many would like to forget. On to what to expect from 2001: 1. The Nasdaq will a) Rise 8% (Headlines will call this a great year.) b) Fall more than 30% (Multiples remain too high.) c) Party like it's 1999, rising more than 80% d) End the year flat, actually a worse fate than a big drop, at least from the investment-brokerage business e) Be shut down 2. Japan will a) Finally get its economy turned around b) Move to 0% interest rates c) Stumble along for yet another year d) Close all its banks e) Fall deeper into recession, making for some outstanding real estate opportunities in Hawaii 3. The acronym that will matter most in financial markets a) DIP (That's Debtor-in-Possession financing, a bankruptcy court expression.) b) B2B (Wait, there really will be $1.3 trillion in business-to-business revenues in 2003.) c) GWB (How will Bush the Younger deal with recession?) d) FOMC (You really betting against the Fed?) 4. The once prominent tech company that won't make it to 2002 a) priceline.com (Investors won't name any price.) b) Internet Capital Group (ICGE:Nasdaq) (More like, "I See Montgomery Ward" than "I See GE") c) Buy.com (Too little, too late? And give back the minor-league golf circuit to Nike.) d) Webvan (Will CEO George Shaheen give back the millions first?) e) None of the above (They that are going to go out of business have gone out of business.) 5. The once prominent tech-stock analyst that won't make it to 2002 in their current job a) Henry Blodget of Merrill Lynch (He's too clever to want to stick around for the bad times.) b) Holly Becker of Lehman Brothers (Under pressure from management, she'll call the uptick in media stocks that won't appear.) c) Jon Joseph (Being right doesn't help investment-banking business; when Solly loses, so will J.J.) d) Mary Meeker (Why put up with all the barbs?) e) All of the above 6. The executive least likely to be running their current company a) Henry Nicholas of Broadcom (when the growth slows, the weightlifter goes.) b) Meg Whitman of eBay (the CEO's four-year anniversary with the auctioneer comes shortly after the year is over.) c) Tim Koogle (Why is it only now occurring to folks that the Yahoo! CEO's former stint as president of Intermec hardly qualifies as blue-chip experience?) d) Carly Fiorina (Hewlett-Packard's turnaround keeps turning.) e) Jeff Bezos (Oops, turns out the Amazon.com chief isn't CEO material, either.) 7. The best-performing stock among the fallen tech giants a) America Online (The merger solves everything.) b) Microsoft (Justice goes away, W2K is a bigger-than-expected hit.) c) Intel (Consumer electronics saves the chipmaker.) d) Cisco (John Chambers figures out how to wire [say: WAHR] outer space.) e) Sun Microsystems (Turns out they didn't have a lot of dot-com customers after all.) 8. The hottest sector for tech IPOs a) Wireless b) Internet infrastructure c) Internet content (Hope springs eternal.) d) Application service providers (rent vs. buy) e) None of the above (There won't be a hot tech IPO sector in 2001.) 9. In 2001, people will associate "friends and family" with a) The people you're not allowed to bring to the austere holiday party b) The campaign under which employees will be recruited to sell stock to willing investors c) An arcane, anachronistic method of rewarding employees that went out of favor in late 1999 d) The people they're seeing again because they're not working 18-hour days, glued to a PC monitor trading stocks or busy counting their stock options e) All of the above 10. 2001 will be remembered as the year Silicon Valley a) Pulled itself off the floor and became a normal business community again b) Became an affordable place to live again c) Went back to being a place where the pocket-protector crowd pushes around the MBAs d) Saw more companies close their doors than open them e) All of the above