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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bruce Robbins who wrote (62528)1/6/2001 10:57:55 PM
From: goldsheet  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116753
 
> situation in California is getting ridiculous- imagine thinking that the power companies should declare bankruptcy

When the legislature forced utilities to divest generation capacity they created a state government monopoly (ISO) that utilites had to buy their power from. They could not buy directly from out-of-state producers, sign long term contracts, or uses hedges (caps, floor, collars, etc.. ) It is most ironic that those evil forward sales and hedges could have prevented the current California power mess.



To: Bruce Robbins who wrote (62528)1/10/2001 4:13:16 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116753
 
Here is a good source for tracking lease rates, open interest, contango (US, AUS, SAF), delta implied volatility.

thebulliondesk.com

Then hit "today's market news" , then "bullion newswire" : will give Comex open interest there. OI expanded today to 126,000 from 118,000 on the 4th, a clear sign of fresh producer hedging which explains the POG drop.

Under the newswire note Barclay Capital. After enduring their commentary about the "demonetization" of gold at any price by the rocket scientists of the world treasuries, they provide a weekly advisory that gives USD, AUD, ZAR contango, lease rates, and USD, AUD, SAF volatility (delta).

For example if a hedger were to sell in USD three years out they would receive a 3.97% annual contango (premium) for the forward contract. In AUD terms a 4.10% contango. Kind of amazing that they even bother with gold at 265 and the rather nominal return.

The lease rate for dealers 3 years out would be 1.58%, so they are playing with fire for a whopping 2.39% arbitrage. More likely they are tapping into the short term leases at 1.00%(under six months) for their gold borrowing . Borrow short, lend long, and pray gold stays at 265. Insane.