To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (40205 ) 1/6/2001 11:15:47 PM From: Lee Lichterman III Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787 I just realized I kept using the NASDAQ instead of the NDX when talking about support levels. I am looking at the NDX 2200 break as a sign to get short until the 1950 area where I would start dipping again. Sorry for that. By L3_Aka_L3 on Saturday, January 06, 2001 - 10:33 pm: Edit An interesting view by LaVerne Olney who runs the market internals site I have a link to here. He found some interesting internal relationships....... From: LaVerne E. Olney Saturday, Jan 6, 2001 10:50 AM ET Reply # of 5962 Here are a few indicators (VIX and breadth) which are at historical extremes, probably indicating a BOTTOM. 1. Even though the VIX has not approached the extremes of the Fall, 1998, values, the DURATION of the current extremes (10-day moving average VIX > 27) is 58 days and counting. The total duration above this extreme level was 64 days in 1998. jove.prohosting.com 2. The Arms' Index (TRIN) is a ratio of advancing issues-advancing volume to declining issues-declining volume. In the past 9 years (for which I have data), there have been 5 previous occasions when the NASDAQ TRIN has been greater than 3.2 (range 3.21-3.57). The first four of these (10/9/1995, 10/27/1997, 4/14/2000, 5/19/2000) were either coincident with, or within 1 day of a NASDAQ cycle low. The latest previous occurrence was 11/8/2000, which may have been related to the Election stalemate. Friday (1/5/2001) had a NASDAQ TRIN value of 3.42. A chart of the 10-day TRIN (10-day moving average) shows recent extremes higher and of longer duration than those seen in 1998. jove.prohosting.com 3. Both NASDAQ McClellan Summation and HI-LO Summation* Indices are coming off significant bottoms. jove.prohosting.com jove.prohosting.com Here is a HILO summation chart of the 1993-1995 period (FOMC policy changed from tightening to loosening in Spring, 1995). jove.prohosting.com * This High-Low Summation Index is calculated in the same manner as the McClellan Summation Index, using the New Highs/New Lows instead of the advance/decline numbers. The daily market new-lows are subtracted from the new-highs. The 40-day exponential and 20-day exponential moving averages are calculated. The 40-day EMA is then subtracted from the 20 day EMA to get an oscillator value. The daily oscillator value is then added to the prior day's Hi-Lo Index (summation index) to get today's Hi-Lo Index. leo By L3_Aka_L3 on Saturday, January 06, 2001 - 07:43 pm: Edit Here are the oil articles I was referring to earlier.......... Kuwaiti oil minister: OPEC will cut up to 2 million barrels a day The Associated Press 1/6/01 5:48 AM KUWAIT (AP) -- The members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have agreed to cut production by 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day to boost prices, Kuwait's oil minister said Saturday. The state-run Kuwait News Agency quoted Sheik Saud Al Sabah as saying Ali Rodriguez, the organization's president, informed him of the consensus among OPEC's members. He did not provide further details. The 11-member cartel increased production four times over the past year to bring soaring prices down. Oil prices have been hovering around $20 a barrel, down from $30 for OPEC's basket of crudes in September. In Iraq, Oil Minister Amer Mohammed Rashid said the reduction would "bring stability back to the market." He called for stronger unity among OPEC members and said they should be independent from outside pressures if they want to stabilize the oil market. OPEC countries produce 26.7 million barrels a day, or 40 percent of the world's oil. OPEC's oil ministers plan to meet in Vienna on Jan. 17 nj.com Saturday January 6, 6:43 pm Eastern Time Iran Reportedly Sees OPEC Output Cut TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has said the OPEC oil producers' cartel would decide to cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day (bpd) at its next meeting in Vienna this month, the Aftab-e Yazd newspaper said on Saturday. ``OPEC is determined to cut production,'' it quoted Iran's OPEC governor Hossein Kazempour as saying. ``OPEC...will decrease production at least by 1.5 million barrels a day.'' OPEC will have a full ministerial meeting on January 17 in Vienna to review market conditions and decide production policy. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer, said consensus was emerging around a 1.5 million bpd output cut. Kazempour predicted OPEC would slash production by a maximum of two million bpd. Iran is the world's third largest oil producer. He said that if the cartel cut production by 1.5 million bpd at the Vienna meeting, a further cut of 1.5 million bpd might come in the spring, but that if output was reduced by two million bpd at the meeting, a cut of one million bpd would be expected next spring. OPEC, mindful of a price slump two years ago that sent oil plummeting below $10 a barrel, wants to keep prices in a $22 to $28 a barrel band, a level deemed suitable to producers and consumers alike. The fact that oil prices have now bounced back to within the price band would not affect the proposed output cut, Kazempour said. ``OPEC members will not have any doubts about cutting production despite oil prices returning to above $22,'' he said. ''This decision does not contradict with the mechanism approved by OPEC to stabilize oil prices between $22 and $28.'' biz.yahoo.com