To: bobby beara who wrote (66125 ) 1/7/2001 9:25:08 PM From: KymarFye Respond to Hey Bobby, on volatility and Rydex shifts, we don't know that it's the same people top-ticking each set of funds... I think it's all part and parcel of the severe disagreement and uncertainty over what's most likely to happen, what "should" happen, what could happen... short-term, mid-term, long-term. As soon as one side gains a little momentum, the camp followers - thinking they were wise to wait a step (second mouse gets the cheese) - rush in, figuring the trend is finally declaring itself... but then those who got in ahead of them leap out with whatever they have (sometimes quite a bit, when the volatility's so extreme)... and a whole 'nother group of scaredy-cats/wise-owls figure it's one of their last best chances to escape with what a few months/ weeks/ days/ hours/ minutes/ seconds ago they were afraid they might never see again. You'd have to be blind not see that the trend in the Nasdaq is DOWN, and you'd have to be equally blind not to see that it's incredibly oversold. You'd have to be an idiot to ignore history and the Fed, when it's already dropped and could drop again soon, and then you'd have to be an autistic not to recognize that this particular moment has some characteristics that might place it in the small but significant group of market situations that proved less susceptible to easing magic than others. You could decide to sit it out - and miss a market that finally decides to start pricing in the recovery that (almost) every tout and talking head confidently claims is inevitable. You could decide to rush in - and take that last painful drubbing that the whole thing just might need to take before a sustained rally can take place.
