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To: timers who wrote (114697)1/7/2001 12:19:41 AM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
My top holding is SUNW. Sure, they have some dot com exposure, but that is priced in IMO. I don't believe that SUNW will warn before they report on the 18th. I think it is grossly oversold, and according to Tom Dorsey's analysis it has just completed a "selling climax." Apparently this is achieved when a stock makes a new 52 week low during the week, but manages to close above the prior weeks close. SUNW made a new 52 week this past week but closed on Friday 01/05 above where it did the prior Friday 12/29. Apparently this is a simple way of trying to gauge selling exhaustion. I also like some semiconducter and semi-equipment stocks here, as they are highly cyclical and they started selling off quite a while ago. That means there has been plenty of time for people to sell out of those, and people that sold those a month or two ago can buy again now that the 30 days wash rule is up. My favorite right now is AMAT, but there are plenty that can be bought.

I also will take a look next week at some PC stocks and see if I can pick through the rubble. I have my eye on GTW and possibly DELL, I don't like CPQ because I can't trust their management. But it is going to be a slow climb for these stocks, they don't have a lot of juice in them. So I don't own them yet.

I'm long ORCL, they had a good quarter and talked bullish recently so I don't think you will get blindsided there.

MSFT & INTC, are ok, essentially any company that is big and safe with lots of cash and little debt. Seasoned management is another plus, and I want the companies I'm long to be have dominant marketplace positions.

Of course if the market rallies it will take CSCO up with it, but this stock is a little troublesome to me because it is so over-owned and it was one of the last to fall. That means there is still a lot of distribution ahead for that stock. But it's hard to not want to buy CSCO when it gets hit because they are one of the best.

Finally, believe it or not, I like YHOO for a trade. I think people are so negative on that stock and have punished it so hard that it is due for a relief rally or possibly a short covering rally going into their earnings Wednesday.

P.S. Those are things I'm looking at it in tech because while tech is getting killed, it can also spike up huge. There are plenty of financials that are worth buying now that they are experiencing profit taking. They were pretty overbought after the surprise ease so it's no surprise they were ripe for a pullback. But I believe it's a pullback that can be bought.

I am not a fan of high PE stocks and I am so sick of hearing about fiber optic stocks. And a few storage names too. That's all everyone wants to talk about is fiber stocks. The more people talk about fiber stocks the more I want to stay away from them! People are finally giving up on that B2B junk I have been warning them to stay away from, so it's about time to sift through the trash and pick a few names there. I haven't been interested until now because none of them make money! They don't have the E in PE and they have multi-billion dollar market caps. But some are getting so oversold that I bet they will bounce on generally positive quarterly reports.

Notice no one wants to even think about buying a PC stock!

Every company I'm long (mostly through calls) has been in businesses for several years, dominates their markets, has lots of cash, seasoned management, and makes money. None of them have triple digit PE's. None of them have come public in the last 5 years. (Well YHOO will have been public 5 years in a few months).