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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (44844)	1/7/2001 12:16:29 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

Softechie, beware of recent success shorting techs cause you to miss the big picture. You were shocked Weds and you might be again and again and again. Every possible bit of reduced earnings has been priced in. Yes, we may have a dip once or twice more, but unless you believe we are going to break recent lows you have very little breathing room down here. I am seeing most techs about 5% from their bottoms and about 200% from their tops. Therefore unless you're trading very-very short term for one more drop shorting here makes about as much sense as going long last March. Yes you might have a day or two more in the sun but the same tricks the market can play on greedy longds near the top will happen to the greedy short near the bottom. I for one am buying techs on any dip Monday. I consider fear to be a bargain-hunter's friend. And even in a slow ecomony we can expect nice 30-50% pops on the main tech names within a modest amount of time, maybe within a month with the feds continued help. In fct it's easy to get 10% per day. Bottomline, earnings disappointments and debt fears have been priced in for a month or more. What else are you hoping for on the short side? Remember we have no inflation and the Fed might feel free to cut two more basis points or even more so long as oil prices stay modest. Eventually therefore we can expect a nice recovery. Thereofre I consider your "confident" short position to be somewhat arrogant and short-sighted (pardon the pun) as you may get one more dip then nothing but general herky-jerky upward movement for a long time to come. PS - I do agree with your long positions on LU and WCOM. I would add a lot of other names to that list as well. Anything with no air left in the bubble that has a strong future basically.