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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (5241)	1/7/2001 2:34:09 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 8925

Pharmaceuticals make a big break down through their trading range intelligentspeculator.com Amazing quick move here, breaking a range in three days that has built up over a month and a half. It may continue to sink straight from here or rally back near prior support. Its such a big break that of course my inclination is to find weak components of this sector to short or perhaps a sector ETF.

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (5241)	1/8/2001 1:11:59 AM
From: Ally	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8925

Hi Michael, Re: HUM.. not sure whether the errant trade was reversed or just sold at market. Fred must have had a shock, probably thinking he's being taken over and him not knowing it first <gg> There are rumours about him possibly contemplating retirement, in which case, a friendly acquisition would be a natural speculation. Re: RIMM... I've been on the case since Nov. Shorted the first time on Nov 1... just at the low of the right shoulder formation!! I shorted it based on FA ... I think you know that in the past all my investments/trades are based on FA... the most failing one being PCDocs!<vbg> FA told me that no way RIM's price could be justified, especially with competition in the space getting fiercer from Palm, MOT, and Nokia. However, without the perspective of TA, I shorted it just at the time when it was rising to form the right shoulder!! Withstood all the emotional pain by clinging to FA conviction!! It's funny looking back now, but not so when I was going through that period of agony. Luckily, it did turn out as a right shoulder, afterwards, clunking down at end of November when I got out. Then, I missed the run up in first week of December, probably because I still had memories of the close call, and because I was reading all those books on TA and preparing for T's course. By the time after Christmas, I was more prepared, and could see the bear flag the week before Jan. Got a nice short at top of flag and covered Tuesday when it gapped down and formed a long black day (thanks to intraday chart which I started subscribing to in Nov.) My third short was on Thursday, after watching the rapid formation of what I guessed as another long black day, after the long white day on Wednesday when the Fed cut rates. Closed this position in the afternoon - my first intraday trade ever!!. Talking of the rate-cut... what's your take on a day like that.. causing an unnatural bounce? Should it be asterisked as an "unusual event" in chart analysis, or continue to consider the candlestick of that day as just another candlestick? What I didn't expect was another clunk day on Friday, and so I left 1/2 money on the table, and maybe more if tomorrow and the rest of this week, it clunks further. I was reflecting on this and felt that maybe the reason why I left money on the table is because of all the talk about closing positions at end of day. That is, I was thinking TA. If I had thought FA, I would have left the bet open much longer. However, RIM is very volatile, and it can move 10 points easy during a day just from mo mo day traders. Even so, I think I may have made a mistake closing the positions when FA is so compelling to leave until it falls to say 5 times forward sales, i.e. US$20 I've posted my analysis on GLW, if you have time, I would appreciate your observations. Message 15140490 There's more money to be made on GX imo. I see it as having completed Vic 123 trend reversal successfully, and is now retracing in an uptrend, of course, unless it failed another test, although I don't know which test it could possibly fail. Toni Turner's book sums it best..." it's on an uptrend, unless it's not."