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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2919)	1/8/2001 10:55:40 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

My own sense however is more time oriented. Whether we see a lower low or not I suspect we will see it in the next three to four months. I usually am loathe to predicting a turn in the stock market. It's just not my style of investing. A good chunk of my portfolio has purchase dates in the 80s. But buying stocks at the turn of an economic cycle is one event I will try to time. I agree with your time frame on the one condition that rate cuts will be quick to ignite an economic turnaround. There have been times in the past when rates were cut but a rally in stocks did not follow. The determining factor is whether economic growth follows, IMO. I am still waiting for a new low to buy NASDAQ stocks, but think the time isn't so bad to be shopping in other areas. I still think the sharpness of this slowdown has not been recognized by most as we will have a coincident slowing in consumer spending, capital investment and inventory investment. This should make for a nice first half slowdown. Almost everyone is predicting a 2nd half pickup. If that is placed in doubt, we will have another down leg in every area of the market. That would be a great buying opportunity. I'm keeping my ear to the ground.