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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: velociraptor_ who wrote (44868)1/8/2001 2:59:56 AM
From: ~digs  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57584
 
Velo... regarding Federal rate cuts in 1929: Here is a chart that I ran across which helps to illustrate your point...

services.elliottwave.com

It is true that historically, the mantra of "don't fight the fed" has generally been a correct assertion. But, we mustn't forget that sometimes there are exceptions to what has become the 'conventional wisdom'.

Whether or not this happens to be one of those times remains to be seen. I am watching the 2300 compx level (roughly the point at which Greenspan stepped in) with a very close eye. As was mentioned previously... Greenspan has spent his silver bullet. If the markets cannot hold that level then I personally believe there is significantly more downside.

That said I think Rande is correct in saying that no one should 'hope' for fiercely bear market. The loss of liquidity would make for some very boring circumstances as compared to the recent past.

JMHO



To: velociraptor_ who wrote (44868)1/8/2001 6:59:28 AM
From: Rande Is  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57584
 
Velociraptor, let it not be said I wasn't open to the short-sellers opinions. You are always welcome to share your opinions here, as they are well presented, well supported and are your OWN views. Furthermore, you treat others with respect. So you will always be treated with respect here, regardless of whether your view is contrary to the many bulls we have at HOME. This welcome is rarely presented to bears, due to the desire to dominate, rather than discuss. . .which seems to run rampant in that species.

It is refreshing to see a bear acting civilized. . . .

Hey, wasn't there a cartoon about that very thing?

"Hey look, Boo, a Pic-a-nic basket!"

Rande Is



To: velociraptor_ who wrote (44868)1/8/2001 10:01:11 AM
From: shadowman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
V,

The chart on the fed discount rate cuts from 1929 to 1931....the numbers on the right side of the chart..1000 up to 4000. The chart seems to indicate that the DOW declined from a high somewhere between 3500 and 4000 in 1929, to a low below 1000 in 1931.

Those numbers seem a bit odd to me. Anybody feel the same?

I'm not questioning the rate cut premise...just the DOW #'s.

Thanks