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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (40263)	1/8/2001 9:04:13 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 42787

Have heard so much about the '1st week of the year' significance (as goes the 1st wk, so goes the year, etc) that I decided to back test some data this morning. I took three 7-year periods; 1970-76, 1980-86, 1990-96, and checked the 1st 5 trading days returns, and the year's returns. The results were the opposite of popular market lore. Taking a (-1% to +1%) 1st wk. return as neutral, and greater or less than that as positive or negative, I found: Average Yearly Return after, a Positive 1st week = 5.3% (7X) a Neutral 1st week = 10.1% (8X) a Negative 1st week = 12.0% (6X) So, if there is any significant correlation between the 1st week of the year and the rest of the year, it is OPPOSITE to the 1st week's direction, at least it is for this set of data. Hope this helps dispel that myth. Regards, TW