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To: Square_Dealings who wrote (40274)	1/8/2001 9:01:50 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Michael- Would you agree that the market has historically done well (of course, with exceptions..) after a 2nd rate cut? Everything I've read seems to indicate that... Most consider the 50 BP the other day as only ONE rate cut...but it is pretty certain that we will get our 2nd one at the end of the month, no? Wouldn't that mean that, going purely by the historical odds...one should selectively load up between now and the 31st? If one is "following the trend", it would appear that the burden of proof is on the bears here...to prove that THIS TIME, Fighting the Fed makes sense... Is this time really different (from most other times?)...Is the energy/dot.com/telecom problems (this time) so much greater than those problems which bothered the market in the past (when the Fed cut rates and the market rallied).....Not saying you're wrong, just interested in hearing your arguments why...

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (40274)	1/8/2001 9:08:06 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 42787

michael, all the credit card and mortgage debts are most affected by employment. If all the layoffs started accelerating, the laid-offs have no money to repay and the not-laid-offs start to worry to decelerate spending. FRE and FNM could benefit from one round of refinances if the rate spikes down. However, if real estate prices come down, many homeowners may lack the equity to refinance. In either case, I agree with you that this is a good group to watch for shorting. Ramsey