tc,
<< always on (i.e. flat fee) >>
That's very interesting.
Sort of like, always on (i.e. pay by the packet)?
Or unlike "flat fee" but not "always on", like dial-up v. SDL or cable?
Or sort of like always on (i.e. pay by tiered and bundled MOU)?
Always on and rate plans are mutually exclusive although "always on" functionality can most certainly be combined with "flat fee", and "flat fee" is or will be a serious wireless data issue, particularly in the US where wireless service providers are trying to figure out how to make data pay, while providing perceived value to customers.
Given the financial condition of MCOM, maybe they should consider one of the latter two, if only as an alternative to the first?
<< "30,000 subscribers thus far" ... typically released quarterly; this quarter's numbers should be interesting. >>
They should. Annual report notes that "as of September 30, 2000, there were 25,900 users of our service." Sub net adds is a very useful metric. Year ending figures and quarterly growth will be interesting.
It is interesting to note that by comparison, AT&T Wireless Services has attracted 300,000 subscribers for it's 10 month old business oriented, abysmally slow, limited coverage (like MCOM) CDPD based WAP oriented "PocketNet" service.
"MCOM is delivering: "opening 14 markets that cover over 400 individual towns and municipalities."
400 individual towns and municipalities." is VERY limited coverage. So is 14 markets.
40 of the top 50 markets would probably be interesting for their prospective subscriber base ... 80 of the top 100 would give them real appeal.
Their web site say "coverage will continue expanding and is targeted to reach 46 markets in 2001". If I were a little more interested in MCOM, I would drill down a little more to find out WHICH markets these were. I think I did that though when I investigated subscribing there service a few months back.
I elected not to subscribe because of lack of coverage ... and also their lack of profitability, although some of their service providers won't be going out of business soon.
[Note: On December 5th MCOM announced that they have expanded coverage in the MTA that services me and the BTA I reside in and claim to cover 1.9 million POPs in this MTA - I have not determined whether or not it is available at my residence or office. It might be.]
The Novatel Wireless Merlin for Ricochet is pretty cool and pretty flexible, and pretty affordable (at <$300 there are no high switching cost here) but as the caveat in recent reviews says ... "you should check Metricom's coverage maps before making a purchase.". . Let's see ... $300 for the modem, straight line depreciation over 18 months when 1xRTT will most certainly be available at 144 kbps with nation wide coverage and $75 a month for unlimited service is >$90 a month. Not a killer but not a bargain for rather limited portability.
"Metricom has spent more than 15 years on the development of its distinctive MicroCellular Data Network (MCDN) technology._ - December MCOM press release -
That's a long time to be without profit and a long time to get to $20 million annual sales.
From an investment point of view, I would never personally begin to consider investing in a company that not only has never been profitable, projects increasing losses for upcoming quarters with (possible) profitability way off on some remote horizon.
I suspect that is the case for most of the participants of this thread (some of whom subscribe MCOM services), who enjoy dialoguing with new participants about companies with promising technology, providing the individual they are dialoguing with has been considerate enough to acclimate himself to the thread sufficiently by discussing a gorilla or king candidate in gorilla terms.
Lack of same, constitutes rudeness, and the thread has a low tolerance for rudeness. I most certainly do.
<< Nonetheless, 30k 'wireless' subs at 128 kbps is far more than any other wireless service provider can claim >>
At 128 kbps it most certainly is.
South Korea Telecom (SKT) has just launched 144 kbps "always on" service using 1xRTT [always on (i.e. pay by the packet)], and it will be available in 71 major South Korean cities shortly, and will be in widespread use across Asia by the end of 2002.
I would guess that it currently has less than 5,000 subs, as it launched in October and upgrade of their nationwide network is rapidly in progress.
However ...
They have 5 vendors that will be supplying handsets (aka modem) or devices for this service. The largest is Samsung. Samsung alone will be delivering 100,000 1xRTT devices per month to SKT.
100,000 devices per month. This year.
SK Telecom currently has a subscriber base of more than 14 million, who use always on packet data at 64 kbps.
1xRTT will be launched by both Verizon (240 million licensed US POPs) & Sprint PCS (270 million licensed US POPs) late this year and will be available across their national networks in 2002.
This is mobility as well as portability and most importantly it is with substantial coverage, and coverage is where wireless data take up starts. I would guess 1xRTT is going to be serious competition for Metricom.
Then in 2003 we are looking at HDR with speeds up to 2.4 Mbps
In addition ...
Sprint PCS is offering a commercial business service right now in direct competition with Metricom. Raw data throughput using wireless modem or phone as modem is only 14,4 kbps, BUT, effective throughput is V.90 speed using Bluekite data compression and data optimization.
I use my phone as a modem for a Palm Vx and occasionally for a laptop, Same deal. Using Proxinet, effective throughput is V.90 speed and that will due for me (and my company) for portability till 1xRTT rolls out.
No, it's not "always on" yet since I'm connecting through a proxy server, and it's not unlimited - bundled MOU apply.
MCOM doesn't go [enough places] where I go (so doesn't provide sufficient portability), may or may not be available where I am (45 miles south of one major metro, and 55 miles north of a 2nd) so it's ADSL at 684/128 ($55/mo unlimited with the line) in office and a very optimized 14.4 mobile and V.90 wired portable. No WAP in my life. Rather than spending $300 for that most appealing Ricochet modem, I'll probably spend about $400 for the Kyocera or Samsung smart phone (modem) as soon as one is released with a Qualcomm MSM5105 (1xRTT chipset) in it. That could well be well ahead of genearl deployment of Verizon 1xRTT service, but it is a hedge against obsolescence.
In the interim MCOMs earnings outlook for the next year looks pretty bleak and my gut tells me that by the time they build out sufficiently to attract a robust subscriber base, the major wireless carriers will have better, more flexible, more cost effective offerings, and coming behind them from another angle are ArrayComm, and SwiftComm, which were mentioned in a link you posted here.
[ArrayComm has really cool technology ... check their Japan PCS user base --- I have not yet --- and applicable to "always on" GPRS].
But sorry, I don't see any gorilla characteristics in MCOM.
They might be there. You have not provided anything that would indicate same.
<< MCOM's R2 MCDN is THE disruptive technology...... >>
Is it a proprietary and open architecture?
Are their high switching costs?
How strong is their value chain? (which includes MCI)?
Is the industry in hypergrowth?
This thread is watching for signs of a wireless data tornado. Consensus is that it the better part of a year away.
Several people have asked you to discuss MCOM in gorilla terms. You have yet to do so.
Instead we get:
<< I've decided, that YES, WE'VE GOT AN 800 lb emerging GORILLA ON THE LOOSE!!! >>
Yikes, yet another sighting. We get lots of those.
Gorilla's are pretty rare beasts. Lots of sightings. Not too many gorilla's or even gorilla candidates when subjected to close scrutiny, however. How many ounces does this critter weigh right now would you say?
There has been a lot of static on this thread lately. 14 posts in 3 days, from one poster, about one company, with no attempt to discuss that company in Gorilla Gaming terms is static .... and by this threads conventions, ... it is rude.
Lets see, SI provides a nice feature to cut down on static. There it is. Might as well flag on all 3 options.
Someone will. I'm sure, alert me, if and when you have taken the time to RTFM and elect to apply it by submitting a Project Hunt Report on MCOM.
I'm sure it will be interesting.
In the interim ... Prosperous Investing.
- Eric - |
