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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (244)	1/8/2001 12:51:47 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95683

Who's buying? Potter... (I bought some last month....)

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (244)	1/8/2001 6:07:06 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95683

Knip, Yes, we had another follow thru today - the NASDAQ was off 0.5 percent while the group was up 2.8 percent. The problem for the NASDAQ recently has been the selloff of the large cap, high fliers, like CSCO, INTC, and many others. At the same time, the semi-equips, which have been beaten up so badly in the Oct/Nov time frame have been recovering somewhat. It will be interesting to see how much longer this situation will continue. Don W.

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (244)	1/9/2001 9:21:29 PM
From: Jerome	Respond to of 95683

Who's buying? .... The very same institutions and mutual funds that sold on the way down. Although it can not be charted or scrutinized by hard statistical data there is a definite change in attitude concerning these semi-stocks. 1) There have been several favorable comments in the past few weeks about AMAT, LRCX, NVLS, CMOS, ESIO, ASYT, TER and AMKR.These were high visibility comments on CNBC or magazines like Fortune or Business week. 2) In as much as we might be entering a slowdown for the economy as a whole, these companies are experiencing a slowdown in growth as opposed to the auto industry which will be experiencing a decline in sales and unit growth. 3) Many of the large cap names on the Nasdaq (CSCO) carry very robust (or unhealthy) PE's. These robust PE's as they come into line with a slowing economy will continue to drag the Nasdaq down. Keep in mind that if CSCO, SUNW, MSFT,and ORCLE each drop 3 points on any given day it doesn't make any difference if LRCX, NVLS,AMAT go up three points, the Nasdaq will continue to trend lower. 4)I get the impression through my readings on the semi's that investors and mutual funds are searching out companies with solid earnings even if this is down market. For the most part mutual funds had a bad year in 2000, and they can't much improve this years record unless they are invested in something besides T Bills. 5) The conventional wisdom of the past three years that, "why buy stocks when buying an index fund beats everything", is seeing a year of reversal. Mutual funds that buy companies with solid earnings will beat the pants of all the indexes. 6)Very likely what we are seeing is a reversal of the common investment themes of the last three years. This leaves the semi-equipment makers in a very good position. Solid but unspectacular earnings with strong possible upside later in the year. 7) How high will the semi's go? As they say in Spanish, "Se Depende", or as my Spanish friends in Paraguay used to say when I asked them a tough question, "Quien sabe?" Jerome