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To: AllansAlias who wrote (55287)	1/8/2001 12:16:32 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

although there is little doubt that the slowdown is discounted in the minds of the bulls. It will be very interesting to see how they are all doing with their 'investments'. Got Ponzi? These are what I consider the big 3 as far as leveraged companies go. Check out mid page the EPS trend going back 7 days, 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days ago. 90 days ago is about when the first signs of the coming recession started popping up, so this gives a pretty good idea of what's priced in: quicken.com quicken.com quicken.com The interesting thing is over the past year none of these 3 companies have been able to grow earnings from "operations". It has all come from selling stock and more stock. If you extrapolate that since none of the 3 were capable of growing operating profits over last years boom time, I think it's pretty safe to assume they won't be able to in the coming recession. This means future expectations are all based on how much stock they can sell. Combined, they did almost $10 BILLION in 2000 which is a very very large number. Given that they can no longer sell RHAT for $100 or LNUX for $150, you really have to wonder where this money is going to come from and how many more quarters they can keep the game going to allow the insiders to bail out. Judging how these estimates have changed over the past 90 days, I'd say it's a safe bet much more revisions need to be done. I somtimes wonder if there's anyone left on Wall Street left that's capable of doing this very simple analysis on a financial statement and drawing some very basic conclusions. [BTW- when Cisco goes, my bet is this game ends very quickly]

To: AllansAlias who wrote (55287)	1/8/2001 12:45:41 PM
From: Andy Thomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

if one of these major corporations with a large wad of cash/securities were to suddenly go short, they could generate huge amounts of short-term profits, then sort of be 'king of the hill' once the damage were done. i don't imagine any of the financial officers at these companies is smart enough to do that though. say intc took its portfolio, sold it, then went short... while everything went 'TU' they could reap in the harvest. again, i don't think anyone in such financial departments has the brains. even a potential 'dot.bom' with millions in seed money could go short the market and 'win' here. andy