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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (9942)	1/8/2001 8:00:34 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Hi Bosco: I actually tried to respond to you twice from a post over a week ago but between SI (boy does it s***) losing both responses, my own internet access issues and work I haven't had a chance. Anyway Bush is just trying to use a reason to push his tax cut agenda (good reason actually). Zeev and I differ on the benefit of his tax cuts (or at least we differ on the high income earners) and while I agree 100% we need to pay down the debt I also feel we need to curtail the funds or the politicians will spend it. It is a fact if the funds are there they will spend it on pet projects. I'd rather the corporations and individuals decide where it should be spend vs. the government. As for Bush making the situation worse thats just FUD. The situation is pretty dire already (note the 50 basis points but of course AG should have cut 25 in Dec and again in Jan) in auto land, the far east and south america. He's just starting to make the people aware (versus current administration indicating everything is fine and rosy). Wait till you see the next couple of jobs reports now that were past the holidays. If your still on margin I think you might have survived <gg>. It looks like we should rally for a bit from here (Zeev and I differ again in that I think we can rally for a couple of months (of course AG needs to cut again @ the end of the month for that to happen). Even if we rally for a couple of months you need to sell once we start to be over brought and buy when its over sold. Its still too early to become a long term investor (Zeev and I agree maybe next Oct/Nov). I can't post much for a while. Good luck Tim

To: Bosco who wrote (9942)	1/8/2001 9:34:17 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

Tim and I disagree here, I have a top here on Wednesday (2:00 PM <g>), then a "mild decline" (but if we break the 2395, about today's close, by Friday, forget about mild and run for the hills), I think we should be able to reach about the peak of the post fed rally or just under, if we make a new high, then my scenario will change, and Wednesday will not be the peak. I doubt very much that we will see anything higher than 2850 in January (another change of mind, since I had before 3050 as the January peak, those turnips change their mind and quite often). If you see the rally stuttering by mid day Wednesday, you may want to take some of the chips off the table, it is really not a good time to be margined right now, IMHO. By the way, if we do peak here and the following decline is mild (2395 not breached, then I the see the beginning next week as "volatile" with a slight bias up, a decline toward the 23rd and a bottom (don't get excited, just a local bottom) and the rally resuming around the 24th/25th. Zeev