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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (44951)	1/8/2001 9:30:13 PM
From: Jane4IceCream	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Actually, I think most of us here are mature enough to face reality and deal with it. I applaud your calls, they have been stellar (not sure if your calls are yours or not) but I dont need a psychiatrist here on SI!! I am willing to bet that many here better traders than you give credit. As far as AS's strategy I think it worked fine in the 70's, 80's, and most of the 90's but the ability of online trading to allow most anyone to trade increases the volatility. As far as volatility goes, its a traders best freind. Jane

To: Softechie who wrote (44951)	1/8/2001 9:51:00 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Softechie: I hate to admit it, but I agree with your post. When Fed bumped rates up last week, I aggressively bought non-tech stocks to increase my exposure to the market, guessing that this would trigger a rebound. I bought: selected banks and brokerages, healthcare (excluding large-cap pharmaceuticals), a few retailers, and one home-builder, all stocks I thought would be sensitive to a climate in which the Fed was aggressively lowering rates. To cover my ass, I put tight (8%) stops below my purchase price on each stock, and only bought partial positions. Well, guess what? I have ALREADY stopped out of over 1/2 the stocks I bought. Meanwhile, the tech stocks I have been tracking for eventual purchase are all well below their prices on Jan 1. The moral of this story? There is no easy money to be made in this market, either long or short. Investors are scared and confused, and are rotating from one sector to another in the course of 2-3 days, with all sectors (except retailing) declining from beginning of the year. My point? Stay on the sidelines until the market gives clear direction that it is on its way back up. Whether this takes six weeks or six months is irrelevant. If you continue to "nibble" at "bargains" and slowly deplete your portfolio's net worth, you will not have any gunpowder for later in the year when the series of Fed rate cuts begin to take effect. I DO expect a strong second half but, unlike last year, I will exercise discipline and avoid the temptation to catch falling knives and guess where the bottom is. When the market does begin rebounding, it will be slow and spasmodic -- you will have plenty of time to establish positions in the stocks you want. If you miss the first 10-15% back up, so be it. It is far better than catching the next 20-25% down. JMHO. DlphcOracl