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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bryan who wrote (27645)	1/9/2001 11:53:43 AM
From: Jack Hartmann	Respond to of 49816

Bryan, Great research. Should be a post of the day. I didn't realize the drop was that severe after the first rate cut. Thanks for an exceptional post. Jack

To: Bryan who wrote (27645)	1/9/2001 12:05:31 PM
From: DebtBomb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 49816

Bryan, I thought about that, and one of the reasons the Nasdaq went down on the first 1/4 point rate cut in 98 was because, many thought the 1/4 point wasn't enough. This time, the cut was a 1/2 point. Now maybe 1/2 point wasn't enough, but I can tell you what happened in 98, after that first rate cut in 98, the Nasdaq went down for like 7 days in a row. This time, after the 1/2 point cut, the Nasdaq only went down 3 days in a row, so far. So, was a 1/2 point enough this time?? Maybe so. If not, then we may go down. But, I think it was enough, at least for now, but I also think we need more, IMO. Bryan, and you have to remember, after that first cut in 98, and after going down 7 days in a row, THAT WAS THE BOTTOM!! Check the quotes. Then, we had nothing but upwardness. I am not saying that history is going to repeat itself, or that the bottom is in, but I think we are very close to the bottom, if we didn't already hit it. And, if that 98 data is any indication of what will happen after the second cut this time......need I say more?

To: Bryan who wrote (27645)	1/9/2001 12:36:50 PM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 49816

Bryan, where's my rally cap?? CSCO almost red.

To: Bryan who wrote (27645)	1/9/2001 2:55:47 PM
From: JLS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 49816

Bryan, nice work! A couple of questions... Sept29, 1998: Fed cuts FF rate 25bps. NAZ is at 1730. Before this move did the Nasdaq have the kind of drop we have seen this year? I would think at least that factor is different in this case. And also as I understand it the cut in '98 was to stem a global financial crisis and not to avoid a potential recession. This would make the cuts different in terms of what they were trying to accomplish. I read something interesting last night from material I can't repost...essentially saying the drop in consumer confidence prompted the surprise move as the Nas was about to march into the abyss...Greenspan being the best technical trader around <g> had to rescue the stock market and consumers which have become the economy, fueling the growth.