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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EJhonsa who wrote (8735)	1/9/2001 2:41:33 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Respond to of 34857

what have you seen Nokia do, as of yet, that makes it seem that they're trying to delay the rollout of W-CDMA? And more importantly, what is it that makes you think Nokia doesn't want W-CDMA to be deployed any time soon? Simple Nordic spite to taunt the Q-fanatics. Geez, Eric, you've been hanging out on these threads for a while, thought you'd a figured that out by now. Basically, there are millions of conspiracies hatched every day against Qualcomm (and its cousin Globalstar); but we are blessed on SI to have a dedicated band of posters who ferret out the nefarious doings of the likes of: - Nokia - Ericsson - GSMA - UWCC - T/AWE - Marc Cabi - Ed Snyder - CNBC - Chinese government - China Unicom - South Korean government - South Korean incumbent wireless telcos - ANATEL - Indian government - U.S. FCC re: Nextwave - Tero the K. I am sure I'm missing a number of additional unindicted co-conspirators who are trying to unfairly ruin, yes ruin, everything for QCOM shareholders (of which I'm one).

To: EJhonsa who wrote (8735)	1/9/2001 2:48:30 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

<...what have you seen Nokia do, as of yet, that makes it seem that they're trying to delay the rollout of W-CDMA?> Endless negotiations with QUALCOMM on buying a licence for 3G. Long, long denial that they were using QUALCOMM technology in their vapourware. Years and years of 'developing' W-CDMA [keep in mind that they have, allegedly - Tero made such claims, been working on W-CDMA since 1993] whereas QUALCOMM, a rinky-dink little company was able to get field trials of CDMA up and running in a couple of years between 1989 and 1991 and handsets available a year or so after that. Nokia has got $$billions available for 3G and so far, people are talking about 2004 or something for it to be ready. What they call '3GSM' which NTT and others are going to start installing this year doesn't seem to be anything at all like all-singing and dancing 3G with high data rates. They have excluded QUALCOMM [along with the other GSM Guild [GG] members] from the standards development. They adopted a deliberately different chip rate for no good reason in an attempt to make it incompatible with other CDMA standards. They made other technological differences for no good reason and the 3G standards have now been made more harmonious under pressure from the service providers so that a handset can fit the necessary bits and pieces into one device. There was a general action of common interest by the European politicians to exclude normal CDMA technology from Europe. The telecommunications trade-opening act was defied by politicians in Europe, requiring intervention by Charlene Barshefsky and the Clinton crowd to get them to open up as legally required. Nokia, Ericsson and other GSM Guilders would have been promoting exclusionary laws in Europe to protect their Berlin Wall economy. Nokia and other GSM Guilders charged 15% royalties for GSM which was extorquerationate - they whine about a mere 5% for QUALCOMM for brilliant technology but were happy to dun interlopers if they dared to compete in the GSM feeding-frenzy in Europe. Stuff like that. <And more importantly, what is it that makes you think Nokia doesn't want W-CDMA to be deployed any time soon?> A 35% market share in GSM phones and 5% or so in CDMA phone sales is all you need to know. But throw in a big market share in GSM infrastructure sales and you have a solid case that they would be nuts to allow development of VW-40 anytime soon if they can possibly slow it down. Every day that goes by is a bigger installed base of GSM switching and the greater the likelihood that they can swing more people onto their new W-CDMA stuff. Oh, but wait, they can also lead the GSM world into GPRS [because W-CDMA is delayed and dodgy so they should go GPRS first] and then, in another bite at the long-suffering subscriber, drag them over the Bleeding EDGE. Finally, years later, they will be handed W-CDMA in some form. W-CDMA is hard, but QUALCOMM has done it and has produced an ASIC. Nokia, after 10 years of working on CDMA, can't get a competing ASIC even in 2G, let alone 3G. Either they are incompetent or didn't put serious resources in because it wasn't important to them, which it obviously wasn't since they enjoyed huge GSM market share. When W-CDMA and cdma2000 and 1xEV are selling, Nokia is going to be one of the pack. They will almost certainly have a good market share because they can leverage their huge marketing, distribution, development and common components into CDMA from GSM. But there are about 60 or 70 subscriber device licensees for CDMA. The competition will be a lot more serious than for GSM. They are unlikely to get anywhere near 35% market share. Nokia would be nuts to do anything other than tag along with the crowd in W-CDMA while pushing GSM for all it's worth, which is hundreds of $$billions, because they get a BIG slice of the GSM cake. They need to also be in the forefront of W-CDMA because when it arrives, they need to be getting a big market share. As you say, Nokia will be, [like Microsoft converting to the Net from the PC, like a maniacal religious convert babbling the latest mantra], going like mad behind the scenes now that they have 'seen the light' to position themselves for W-CDMA avalanche when it can no longer be held back. Nokia is playing a dangerous game by avoiding a licence from QUALCOMM for 3G. QUALCOMM has said they will be putting up the rates. Everyone has been given fair warning so they shouldn't whine if they get to pay the new, higher prices for an obviously great and valuable new technology [as shown by the bids in 3G spectrum]. To think that the whole VW-40 saga, now running for 8 years if we believe Tero, was not designed to head off QUALCOMM at the pass and delay moves from GSM is to ignore the profits of control which Nokia, Ericsson and others have enjoyed. GSM has made billions in profit for those companies. They won't want to give that up any time soon. And they didn't! They have strung it out until 2001 and are still going. Mqurice PS: Mika, I'm being polluted right now by that horrible GSM pulsed radiation, so I need to go to the beach to cleanse myself. I'll have a chew on yours later...