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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Binx Bolling who wrote (18073)	1/9/2001 5:11:58 PM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 60323

Binx, thanks for the informative posts. Although SanDisk and some of its competitors in the ultra-high density data storage sector are mentioned, I am still trying to sort out the relevance to SNDK. The articles once again underscore the tendency to lump flash manufacturers together with little precision. Both posts seem to indicate there will be a migration away from NOR to NAND due to an oversupply of NOR flash memory. "Flash Devices Pack for Data Storage" seems like an appropriate title for the second piece you posted. "With overcapacity in NOR memories a real possibility, manufacturers will be shifting their resources to the fast-growing market for serial access NAND-type flash chips, which are used primarily for storing data." The move indicates a general trend to move away from code storage applications (NOR) and into data storage(NAND or AND). It also suggests some NOR producers will be forced to upgrade their production facilities to address the data storage market. The author makes it sound like you can just turn on a dime and produce high density NOR flash capable of competing with NAND in the data storage arena. He also suggests that NAND is the preferable solution for data storage. ...data storage [read "NAND"] boast faster write speeds, higher latency and lower read speeds. That combination suits digital cameras and MP3 audio players, which are the largest markets for serial-access NAND flash architecture and its derivatives. I think that is a gross oversimplification and an insult to the painstaking efforts of the SNDK engineers who have produced leading-edge, ultra-high density NOR flash memory for data storage applications for some time now. Recall that SanDisk began making high density NOR code/data storage flash. It is one of a few producers who has the capability of producing both leading edge NOR and NAND destined for the data storage market. The only other competitor mentioned with these qualifications is Mitsubishi (DiNOR and AND) with its comfort zone currently somewhere at the 64 megabit level. ____________________________________________________________ Are NOR produces hosed? I respect what Alan Niebel has to say. He mentions an ongoing shortage of data storage flash in 2001... Niebel pegged the capacity of NOR-type flash parts, which are used primarily for storing program code, at 3.1 billion units, compared with demand for less than 2 billion such devices. Manufacturing capacity for NAND and other types of data storage flash, on the other hand, is 1.1 billion units against demand for 2.6 billion units. ...but a significant oversupply of both code and data storage flash in 2002. That is certainly concerning. But recall that he also quantitates flash production in 16 megabit units. Thus I don't believe he is addressing SanDisk's target market directly. ____________________________________________________________ Cellphones, Cellphones, Cellphones!!! I also feel there is a morbid preoccupation with cellular phone sales and an often overstated reliance of flash manufacturers on handset sales. The following sentence typifies this misconception... "By far the largest market for random-access NOR-type flash devices is cell phones..." This may be true for ultra-low, low and intermediate density NOR flash. I don't think SanDisk should be lumped into this same category. I also feel that SanDisk is short-changed with statements like this... Nevertheless, NOR flash memory vendors "want to play in digital camera and other consumer markets, where the requirement is to receive and store large amounts of file data," according to Rich Wawrzyniak, who follows the flash market from Semico Research Corp.'s Irvine, Calif., office. "NAND is better suited for those kinds of applications, and that's what customers will tend to pick if the price is the same," he said. I guess nobody told Mr. Wawrzyniak that SanDisk leaped to 256 Mbit chip densities last year and has been producing NOR in great quantities through its manufacturing relationship with UMC. While NOR devices are available in densities as small as 256 kilobytes, NAND devices are clustered in higher densities, generally 32 megabits and above. ____________________________________________________________ It's all in the cards. SanDisk was recognized as the originator of some of the most successful form factors. Despite this recognition the author still wrote that their success was based on NAND-based products. A large percentage of NAND storage is configured in the form of cards, for which SanDisk Corp. (Sunnyvale, Calif.) originally developed the form factors. Ed Cuellar, director of marketing, said the company in recent years has focused on lowering the cost-per-megabyte of storage and has benefited from higher-density chips and higher yields per wafer. SanDisk was among the first to hit the market, offering chips at 32 , 64 , 80 and 256 Mbits. With help from Toshiba it recently launched a 512-Mbit device. In turn, it's helping Toshiba with multilevel cell technology. It may be the investment in the development and promotion of these card form factors that separates SanDisk from the remainder of the flash memory field. ____________________________________________________________ Now could someone please explain for us how Web server applications (cache memory) and Internet infrastructure expansion will impact the demand for flash memory? Aus

To: Binx Bolling who wrote (18073)	1/11/2001 7:31:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 60323

Binx, I am responding to your prior post... Message 15150205 Still wondering exactly how the following statements may impact SanDisk. Seems like we could benefit from new applications like these... Sharp Microelectronics of the Americas (Camas, Wash.) intends to develop flash for data storage, according to Rob Bernardi, vice president of operations and marketing. "We see the [Internet infrastructure] market going nuts in the next five to ten years," he said. _________________________________________________________________________________ SIMILARLY... Now, NAND devices are finding homes where low-density hard drives used to be, according to Toshiba's Traeumer. "In Web server applications, for example, NAND devices used for cache have the microsecond seek times required to handle millions of hits per day," she said, estimating that with 0.16-micron process technology, the cost of NAND storage should approach 75 cents per megabyte. Using multilevel cell technology, with two bits per cell instead of one, by the end of 2001 NAND cost-per-megabyte should hit 50 cents, she said. Multilevel cell devices, on the other hand, take longer to program. Traeumer said Toshiba expects to have multicell NAND flash devices on the market sometime during 2001. Is anyone able to comment on these applications? Aus